How Does it Compare?

Our forecast alongside other models, expert ratings, and betting markets.

Checked October 21, 2026Dates and availability vary by source ↗

Who is favored to control Congress?

Democratic Republican

Bars show Democratic control odds. Kalshi uses bid/ask midpoints and Polymarket uses displayed prices from saved snapshots; separate contracts may not total 100%. Our Senate forecast assumes elected Independents caucus with Democrats.

Race-by-race comparison

Win chances, native ratings, and projected margins

Sources, dates & availabilitySnapshot data and comparison notes

Win chance is the probability of winning, not predicted vote share. Ratings retain each publisher’s own definitions. A blank value means it could not be verified; it never means a zero-percent chance.

Download the reviewed comparison snapshot ↓