{ "schema_version": 2, "checked_on": "2026-10-21", "default_projection": "correlated", "source_order": [ "ours", "racetowh", "economist", "cook", "sabato", "kalshi", "polymarket" ], "sources": { "economist": { "name": "The Economist", "type": "forecast", "links": { "house": "https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/house/", "senate": "https://www.economist.com/interactive/2026/us-midterms/prediction-model/senate/" }, "status": "available", "updated": { "senate": "2026-10-21", "house": "2026-10-21" }, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T05:26:11.417Z", "data_links": [ "https://cdn.economistdatateam.com/2026-us-midterms/data/senate/aggregated_sims.csv?nocache=1792643434303", "https://cdn.economistdatateam.com/2026-us-midterms/data/house/aggregated_sims.csv", "https://cdn.economistdatateam.com/2026-us-midterms/data/house/topline.csv", "https://cdn.economistdatateam.com/2026-us-midterms/data/senate/topline.csv?nocache=1792643434303", "https://cdn.economistdatateam.com/2026-us-midterms/independents.csv?nocache=1792643434303", "https://cdn.economistdatateam.com/2026-us-midterms/data/house/timestamp.json?nocache=1792643434303" ], "detail": "Public data files used by The Economist’s interactive forecast, checked against the visible race tables. All 435 House districts and 35 Senate races are included. Native probability categories use the publisher’s rounded whole-percent thresholds; margins are calculated from its average two-party vote-share estimates. Independent identities are retained with source-column notes. Same-party or uncontested seats show party outcomes only." }, "polymarket": { "name": "Polymarket", "type": "market", "links": { "house": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026", "senate": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026", "hub": "https://polymarket.com/predictions/midterms" }, "status": "partial", "updated": { "senate": "2026-10-22T05:23:00Z", "house": "2026-10-22T05:23:00Z" }, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T05:32:26.791Z", "detail": "Displayed prices captured from Polymarket’s public, view-only market pages. These are market-implied percentages, not model forecasts or bid/ask midpoints. Separate contracts can total more or less than 100%; their original prices are retained. Race coverage is limited to the markets captured in this snapshot." }, "ours": { "name": "CC Predictions", "short_name": "CC Predictions", "type": "forecast", "status": "available", "links": { "senate": "index.html", "house": "house.html" }, "updated": { "senate": "2026-10-19", "house": "2026-10-19" }, "detail": "Published default shared-error projection, including candidate adjustments. Senate control assumes all elected independents caucus with Democrats. Race probabilities retain candidate party labels." }, "racetowh": { "name": "Race to the WH", "type": "forecast", "status": "available", "links": { "senate": "https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26", "house": "https://www.racetothewh.com/house" }, "updated": { "senate": "2026-10-21", "house": "2026-10-21" }, "detail": "Public Infogram forecast tables. House control uses the latest dated October 21 trend (89.1% D); its headline graphic instead displays 89.2% D. Native ratings and projected margins are retained; district partisan lean is a different measure. Its D column includes Independents Bengs and Achilles; their chances are shown under I here, with source columns retained.", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T00:06:22.339Z" }, "cook": { "name": "Cook Political Report", "short_name": "Cook", "type": "rating", "status": "available", "links": { "senate": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings", "house": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings" }, "updated": { "house": "2026-10-16", "senate": "2026-10-20" }, "detail": "Native categorical race ratings from the publicly indexed primary ratings pages. All 435 House and 35 Senate ratings were recovered and checked against the published category totals. Cook does not supply win percentages in this comparison.", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22" }, "sabato": { "name": "Sabato’s Crystal Ball", "short_name": "Sabato", "type": "rating", "status": "partial", "links": { "senate": "https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/five-senate-rating-changes-as-close", "house": "https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/republicans-try-to-avoid-a-crossover" }, "updated": { "senate": "2026-10-14", "house": "2026-10-08" }, "detail": "Official public October 14 Senate map and October 8 House table: all 35 Senate races and 89 explicitly listed House races. The other 346 House ratings were not inferred. No win percentages are assigned to editorial categories.", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T00:07:15.556Z" }, "kalshi": { "name": "Kalshi", "type": "market", "status": "partial", "links": { "senate": "https://kalshi.com/markets/controls/senate-winner/controls-2026", "house": "https://kalshi.com/markets/controlh/house-winner/controlh-2026" }, "updated": { "senate": "2026-10-21", "house": "2026-10-21" }, "detail": "Standing Yes bid/ask midpoint, expressed as a market-implied percent; quotes require nonzero two-sided order size. Bid and ask are retained. Supplemental Senate hub quotes are marked displayed quote. Separate contracts are not normalized to sum to 100%. 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Todd Achilles and Brian Bengs appear in the source D column even though they are Independents; their source column is retained for provenance.", "The Senate source omits a separate Democratic probability in Montana; its two displayed options are Alme (R) and Bodnar (I). Do not label an omitted Democratic candidate as having zero modeled odds.", "House same-party candidate probabilities are summed for party comparisons. Their displayed candidate-against-candidate margins are retained as text but excluded from the comparable projected_margin_pp field.", "For House D-v-I or I-v-R races, comparison sides align the independent with the absent major-party side. This is a comparison convention only; source_party_probabilities preserves the original party columns.", "House national source inconsistency: headline chart says D89.2/R10.9 (100.1 total); latest Oct21 trend says D89.1/R10.9. Recommended comparison uses the latest dated trend and discloses the difference.", "The national House main graphics Last Update sheet remains Sep26, but its separately embedded visible update label says Oct21 12:47PM ET and latest trend also says Oct21. Use the latter with this provenance note.", "Published national House expected D seats234.2 do not reconcile with the sum of candidate party probabilities (D230.055/R204.674/I0.271). Published Senate expected D52.6 is close to but not exactly the D/I probability sum52.674. Preserve the published national numbers; do not derive national odds or seats by summing these race tables." ], "coverage": { "senate": { "ours": 35, "racetowh": 35, "economist": 35, "cook": 35, "sabato": 35, "kalshi": 35, "polymarket": 35 }, "house": { "ours": 435, "racetowh": 435, "economist": 435, "cook": 435, "sabato": 89, "kalshi": 358, "polymarket": 435 } } }