{
  "enabled": true,
  "election_cycle": 2026,
  "decision_date": "2026-10-21",
  "selected_case": "residual_total",
  "source_period_end": "2026-09-30",
  "source_title": "FEC candidate-level two-year total receipts through September30 of each election year",
  "max_adjustment_pp": 3,
  "fit_file": "prepared/fundraising/2026-09-30/senate_fixed_fits.json",
  "fit_sha256": "24f5fe5cab32c81dc36589ed101bb43ee7b81e673f17f575379ae23b062b4899",
  "historical_baseline_sha256": "32161ac62e45b34bc17cc42b78d41b9e9c5a4fa25cc083f680e7efd9e3e57e60",
  "finance_source_file": "prepared/fundraising/2026-09-30/senate_pairs.json",
  "finance_source_sha256": "741b1b9d70d5dcbddcdc1646d163bb67076608abd4da40567e53a56600615764",
  "authorization": "Explicit instruction on October 21, 2026 to apply the reviewed September fundraising totals and rebuild the model.",
  "statistical_status": "Provisional. Small historical gain, not statistically reliable. Source-period refresh does not establish a new probability-accuracy improvement.",
  "historical_evidence": {
    "cycles": [
      2014,
      2016,
      2018,
      2020,
      2022,
      2024
    ],
    "matched_races": 142,
    "baseline_equal_election_MAE_pp": 4.890723607798619,
    "total_receipts_MAE_pp": 4.85694539120253,
    "sign_flip_p": 0.40625
  },
  "scope": "Senate D/R polled races with unique September30 two-year FEC totals.24 current pairs, including DFL as Democratic. Independents and unpolled races retain their baseline.",
  "uncertainty": "Existing polling and fitted-baseline uncertainty is retained. Intervals are conditional on this provisional financial adjustment and do not include a separately validated financial-effect uncertainty model.",
  "historical_features_sha256": "d4296937e678657f35a72e4c82942eb7fc3e085c508247014dc7c407b4d7cde7",
  "calibration_mode": "Reuse the independently verified coefficients for the initial historical snapshot; automatically refit the same fixed formula when historical means/features change. No model selection or new financial-definition search.",
  "publication_status": "ACTIVE - authorized October 21, 2026",
  "validation_reference_file": "prepared/fundraising/2026-09-30/reference_current_effects.csv",
  "validation_reference_sha256": "46a611ae1fc36703da2edeac50b21d8998bc168243c1d9f7d0fb6c0e35c2fe5c",
  "reference_current_points_sha256": "12d5bcc1e6336701f8691c861b469e47d56485eaca7bfecad811b162a46c5bac",
  "update_receipt": "audit/september_adoption_2026-10-21/RESULTS.md"
}