{
  "status": "PASS",
  "assumption": "All elected Senate independents are assumed to caucus with Democrats.",
  "scope": "All four saved 100,000-draw scenarios; candidate race outcomes and raw draws unchanged.",
  "independent_seat_count": "New independent seats are included in, not additional to, Democratic-caucus totals.",
  "scenarios": {
    "active": {
      "draws": 100000,
      "raw_draws_sha256": "3d70e79dfff6a4986207628944ca80bfb8c2d1988c78eea821068b72a70c20c7",
      "before": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 50.67702,
        "expected_R_seats": 48.71089,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61209,
        "prob_D_51": 0.5328,
        "prob_R_50": 0.40648,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.06072,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.59352,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          55
        ]
      },
      "after": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 51.28911,
        "expected_R_seats": 48.71089,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61209,
        "prob_D_51": 0.59352,
        "prob_R_50": 0.40648,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.0,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.59352,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          56
        ],
        "dem_seat_intervals": {
          "50": [
            49,
            54
          ],
          "70": [
            48,
            55
          ],
          "90": [
            46,
            56
          ]
        },
        "independent_caucus_assumption": "Democratic",
        "new_independent_seats_included_in_D_caucus": true
      },
      "race_probability_reconstruction": 51.28911,
      "joint_outcomes": {
        "D_both": 0.50571,
        "R_both": 0.05828,
        "D_House_R_Senate": 0.34703,
        "R_House_D_Senate": 0.08572,
        "independent_or_no_outright_control": 0.00326
      }
    },
    "correlated": {
      "draws": 100000,
      "raw_draws_sha256": "a349524aecb67ca58048cfb905257606277090cc007a3841bbbbfbac4229cace",
      "before": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 50.66158,
        "expected_R_seats": 48.72024,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61818,
        "prob_D_51": 0.53159,
        "prob_R_50": 0.40856,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.05985,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.59144,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          55
        ]
      },
      "after": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 51.27976,
        "expected_R_seats": 48.72024,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61818,
        "prob_D_51": 0.59144,
        "prob_R_50": 0.40856,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.0,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.59144,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          56
        ],
        "dem_seat_intervals": {
          "50": [
            49,
            54
          ],
          "70": [
            48,
            55
          ],
          "90": [
            46,
            56
          ]
        },
        "independent_caucus_assumption": "Democratic",
        "new_independent_seats_included_in_D_caucus": true
      },
      "race_probability_reconstruction": 51.279759999999996,
      "joint_outcomes": {
        "D_both": 0.53806,
        "R_both": 0.09907,
        "D_House_R_Senate": 0.30709,
        "R_House_D_Senate": 0.05183,
        "independent_or_no_outright_control": 0.00395
      }
    },
    "active_no_manual": {
      "draws": 100000,
      "raw_draws_sha256": "a2e8316f12a9974c0196e36454e85942eab7957021d7ffaf6647470670028e85",
      "before": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 50.31493,
        "expected_R_seats": 49.07298,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61209,
        "prob_D_51": 0.47615,
        "prob_R_50": 0.45586,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.06799,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.54414,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          55
        ]
      },
      "after": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 50.92702,
        "expected_R_seats": 49.07298,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61209,
        "prob_D_51": 0.54414,
        "prob_R_50": 0.45586,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.0,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.54414,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          56
        ],
        "dem_seat_intervals": {
          "50": [
            49,
            53
          ],
          "70": [
            48,
            54
          ],
          "90": [
            46,
            56
          ]
        },
        "independent_caucus_assumption": "Democratic",
        "new_independent_seats_included_in_D_caucus": true
      },
      "race_probability_reconstruction": 50.92702,
      "joint_outcomes": {
        "D_both": 0.46349,
        "R_both": 0.06524,
        "D_House_R_Senate": 0.38925,
        "R_House_D_Senate": 0.07876,
        "independent_or_no_outright_control": 0.00326
      }
    },
    "correlated_no_manual": {
      "draws": 100000,
      "raw_draws_sha256": "ce3b56582f39d6b92a8dc54e8e37ef21ffee129246d4ad0a866d1f2a9a244005",
      "before": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 50.30315,
        "expected_R_seats": 49.07867,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61818,
        "prob_D_51": 0.47658,
        "prob_R_50": 0.45628,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.06714,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.54372,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          55
        ]
      },
      "after": {
        "expected_D_caucus_seats": 50.92133,
        "expected_R_seats": 49.07867,
        "expected_new_I_seats": 0.61818,
        "prob_D_51": 0.54372,
        "prob_R_50": 0.45628,
        "prob_independent_arrangement_needed": 0.0,
        "prob_D_51_if_all_new_I_align_D": 0.54372,
        "D_seats_90": [
          46,
          56
        ],
        "dem_seat_intervals": {
          "50": [
            49,
            53
          ],
          "70": [
            48,
            54
          ],
          "90": [
            46,
            56
          ]
        },
        "independent_caucus_assumption": "Democratic",
        "new_independent_seats_included_in_D_caucus": true
      },
      "race_probability_reconstruction": 50.92133,
      "joint_outcomes": {
        "D_both": 0.49775,
        "R_both": 0.10633,
        "D_House_R_Senate": 0.3474,
        "R_House_D_Senate": 0.04457,
        "independent_or_no_outright_control": 0.00395
      }
    }
  }
}