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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": -0.275325641483569 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.817281898268104, "Brier": 0.04698052941475636, "log_loss": 0.16656415392178722, "coverage50": 0.5052231718898385, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.09177521382785692, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.275325641483569, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.12971659550183, "Brier": 0.08860518669895405, "log_loss": 0.3079593547026355, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.329569351175842, "Brier": 0.03706148083850984, "log_loss": 0.14065948251499627, "coverage50": 0.5954415954415955, "coverage70": 0.7592592592592592, "coverage90": 0.9358974358974358 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.3959373332644051, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.1961192259095066, 1.2569893733065474 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 1.2569893733065474, "2022": 0.1269418523961745, "2024": -0.1961192259095066 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.329569351175842, "Brier": 0.03706148083850984, "log_loss": 0.14065948251499627, "coverage50": 0.5954415954415955, "coverage70": 0.7592592592592592, "coverage90": 0.9358974358974358 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.3959373332644045, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.1961192259095066, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.540645683075267, "Brier": 0.07157337415963468, "log_loss": 0.2636001628535625, "coverage50": 0.6917735042735043, "coverage70": 0.80982905982906, "coverage90": 0.9535256410256411 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_lean_generic": { "label": "Candidate factors + lean + generic ballot", "test_races": 79, "test_cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.1451596005519106, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.43547880165573183, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": -0.43547880165573183 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.1451596005519109, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.43547880165573183, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387985, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.4430501470664292, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.2609152384053446, 1.3296979202606405 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 1.3296979202606405, "2022": 0.2603677593439917, "2024": -0.2609152384053446 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387985, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.44305014706642876, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.2609152384053446, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.4983547420271974, "Brier": 0.07181360256055222, "log_loss": 0.26445450268798476, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2012": 0.0, "2014": 0.0, "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.20265659310976059, "2024": -0.19791941548268488 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.800917224200505, "Brier": 0.0604082495789276, "log_loss": 0.19954898052678827, "coverage50": 0.5230201199766418, "coverage70": 0.7327976854063811, "coverage90": 0.9327472527472528 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0006767396610110055, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.19791941548268488, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.358770977212469, "Brier": 0.13023413737256634, "log_loss": 0.4122297028220859, "coverage50": 0.5823759573759574, "coverage70": 0.7215978465978466, "coverage90": 0.9442918192918193 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.305838364686573, "Brier": 0.12896591671126095, "log_loss": 0.40841496195985905, "coverage50": 0.5933649683649683, "coverage70": 0.7215978465978466, "coverage90": 0.9552808302808303 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_only": { "test_races": 173, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "inference": { "cycles": 7, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2012": 0.0, "2014": 0.0, "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": 0.0 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.358770977212469, "Brier": 0.13023413737256634, "log_loss": 0.4122297028220859, "coverage50": 0.5823759573759574, "coverage70": 0.7215978465978466, "coverage90": 0.9442918192918193 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.358770977212469, "Brier": 0.13023413737256634, "log_loss": 0.4122297028220859, "coverage50": 0.5823759573759574, "coverage70": 0.7215978465978466, "coverage90": 0.9442918192918193 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_lean": { "test_races": 173, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.819844377212626, "Brier": 0.061127281534952414, "log_loss": 0.2012277677231035, "coverage50": 0.5124381093946312, "coverage70": 0.7488742014828972, "coverage90": 0.9327472527472528 }, "inference": { "cycles": 7, "mean_gain_pp": -0.018250413351110075, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.17732961788621784, 0.12257837783288762 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2012": 0.0, "2014": 0.0, "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.28601621494340446, "2024": -0.413769108401175 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.819844377212626, "Brier": 0.061127281534952414, "log_loss": 0.2012277677231035, "coverage50": 0.5124381093946312, "coverage70": 0.7488742014828972, "coverage90": 0.9327472527472528 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.018250413351109884, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.413769108401175, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.358770977212469, "Brier": 0.13023413737256634, "log_loss": 0.4122297028220859, "coverage50": 0.5823759573759574, "coverage70": 0.7215978465978466, "coverage90": 0.9442918192918193 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.362250885566445, "Brier": 0.13061110881365054, "log_loss": 0.4125529862015917, "coverage50": 0.5814602064602065, "coverage70": 0.7335026085026086, "coverage90": 0.9552808302808303 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_lean_strict": { "test_races": 173, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.8203577218209785, "Brier": 0.06112119053683609, "log_loss": 0.20121692134858396, "coverage50": 0.5124381093946312, "coverage70": 0.7488742014828972, "coverage90": 0.9327472527472528 }, "inference": { "cycles": 7, "mean_gain_pp": -0.018763757959462675, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.17806215000095196, 0.12177087612256392 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2012": 0.0, "2014": 0.0, "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.2841320442859825, "2024": -0.4154783500022212 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.801593963861516, "Brier": 0.061063532366842456, "log_loss": 0.20156449575604932, "coverage50": 0.5175256144821362, "coverage70": 0.7433796959883917, "coverage90": 0.9272527472527472 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.8203577218209785, "Brier": 0.06112119053683609, "log_loss": 0.20121692134858396, "coverage50": 0.5124381093946312, "coverage70": 0.7488742014828972, "coverage90": 0.9327472527472528 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.01876375795946217, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.4154783500022212, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.358770977212469, "Brier": 0.13023413737256634, "log_loss": 0.4122297028220859, "coverage50": 0.5823759573759574, "coverage70": 0.7215978465978466, "coverage90": 0.9442918192918193 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.361305353010545, "Brier": 0.1305952389067935, "log_loss": 0.4125236372906979, "coverage50": 0.5814602064602065, "coverage70": 0.7335026085026086, "coverage90": 0.9552808302808303 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "lean_incumbency_generic": { "test_races": 79, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.817281898268104, "Brier": 0.04698052941475636, "log_loss": 0.16656415392178722, "coverage50": 0.5052231718898385, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.09177521382785632, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.275325641483569, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": -0.275325641483569 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.817281898268104, "Brier": 0.04698052941475636, "log_loss": 0.16656415392178722, "coverage50": 0.5052231718898385, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.09177521382785692, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.275325641483569, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.12971659550183, "Brier": 0.08860518669895405, "log_loss": 0.3079593547026355, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_lean_generic": { "test_races": 79, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.1451596005519106, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.43547880165573183, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": -0.43547880165573183 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.1451596005519109, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.43547880165573183, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; 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MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_money": { "test_races": 13, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.6954652280500673, "Brier": 0.07057240794544598, "log_loss": 0.27717103043137964, "coverage50": 0.7692307692307693, "coverage70": 0.8461538461538461, "coverage90": 0.8461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.6954652280500673, "Brier": 0.07057240794544598, "log_loss": 0.27717103043137964, "coverage50": 0.7692307692307693, "coverage70": 0.8461538461538461, "coverage90": 0.8461538461538461 }, "inference": { "cycles": 1, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0, "two_sided_p": null, "interval95": null, "reason": "Fewer than two independent test elections; significance not estimable." }, "cycle_gains": { "2022": 0.0 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2022 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.6954652280500673, "Brier": 0.07057240794544598, "log_loss": 0.27717103043137964, "coverage50": 0.7692307692307693, "coverage70": 0.8461538461538461, "coverage90": 0.8461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.6954652280500673, "Brier": 0.07057240794544598, "log_loss": 0.27717103043137964, "coverage50": 0.7692307692307693, "coverage70": 0.8461538461538461, "coverage90": 0.8461538461538461 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.6954652280500673, "Brier": 0.07057240794544598, "log_loss": 0.27717103043137964, "coverage50": 0.7692307692307693, "coverage70": 0.8461538461538461, "coverage90": 0.8461538461538461 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.6954652280500673, "Brier": 0.07057240794544598, "log_loss": 0.27717103043137964, "coverage50": 0.7692307692307693, "coverage70": 0.8461538461538461, "coverage90": 0.8461538461538461 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; 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no learned blend.", "choices": [] } }, { "case": "candidate_money_amount", "test_cycle": 2026, "training_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2022 ], "training_races": 29, "features": [ "intercept", "pvi_scaled", "incumbency_advantage", "incumbent_prior_scaled", "incumbent_prior_missing", "nonincumbent_prior_scaled", "nonincumbent_prior_missing", "nonincumbent_experience", "career_missing_advantage", "appointed_advantage", "multiple_elections_advantage", "news_scaled", "individual_gap_10m" ], "coefficients": [ 1.7086925567602138, 3.821750076856647, 3.2733068899197533, 0.27180785382157624, 0.046528525754222866, 0.35823983986968305, -0.5771455858088009, 0.03068490215678818, -0.25792358785054803, 0.14978519569336637, 0.9694509094969587, 0.034153809273893936, -0.024322438256570243 ], "lam": 1.0, "blend": 0.0, "selection": { "inner_cycles": [ 2022 ], "reason": "Fewer than two earlier validation cycles; no learned blend.", "choices": [] } } ], "coverage": { "2006": { "historical_races": 8, "generic_races": 0, "financial_races": 0 }, "2008": { "historical_races": 20, "generic_races": 0, "financial_races": 0 }, "2010": { "historical_races": 17, "generic_races": 0, "financial_races": 0 }, "2012": { "historical_races": 23, "generic_races": 0, "financial_races": 0 }, "2014": { "historical_races": 20, "generic_races": 0, "financial_races": 0 }, "2016": { "historical_races": 25, "generic_races": 25, "financial_races": 5 }, "2018": { "historical_races": 26, "generic_races": 26, "financial_races": 11 }, "2020": { "historical_races": 26, "generic_races": 26, "financial_races": 0 }, "2022": { "historical_races": 26, "generic_races": 26, "financial_races": 13 }, "2024": { "historical_races": 27, "generic_races": 27, "financial_races": 0 }, "2026": { "historical_races": 35, "generic_races": 35, "financial_races": 28 } }, "protected_outputs": [ { "file": "model/extensions/senate/active.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/extensions/senate/current_points.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/extensions/senate/analysis.json", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/forecast.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/projection_summary.json", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/house/forecast.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/House Model.html", "unchanged": true } ], "production_changed": false, "enabled": false, "limitations": [ "These elections have already been inspected in project development; chronological reuse is not untouched prospective validation.", "A single linear index is a restricted combination of the underlying variables, not additional independent information.", "Pure fundamentals predicting the election margin and adding information beyond the active polling forecast are different claims.", "Few national cycles, incomplete career/performance sources, subjective news ratings and selected financial coverage limit inference.", "Generic-ballot complete cases start in 2016. Only 2020, 2022 and 2024 have two earlier generic-ballot training cycles; nested blending is unavailable until two earlier validation cycles exist.", "Only 2022 has two earlier matched financial training cycles. A fixed-blend comparison is exploratory; one test environment cannot establish a significant general fundraising effect.", "Bootstrap intervals and sign-flip p-values assume cycle independence despite overlapping training history. They describe sensitivity, not proof of a causal coefficient.", "Current scenarios are research outputs only. Missing reports are not zero, and independent-specific or third-candidate changes are not activated." ] }