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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.2766091492548739, "2018": -0.08113185638077658, "2020": 1.3851582797914093, "2022": 0.27331123229523246, "2024": -0.32360399622490243 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.417080161590769, "Brier": 0.05167946330601875, "log_loss": 0.17668675539928155, "coverage50": 0.5760569800569801, "coverage70": 0.8072706552706552, "coverage90": 0.9452307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.195424902045219, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.32360399622490243, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.6470199242298245, "Brier": 0.11579305517635936, "log_loss": 0.37156076500886376, "coverage50": 0.6756701631701632, "coverage70": 0.85243783993784, "coverage90": 0.9721153846153847 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, { "removed": "prior_performance", "label": "Earlier personal election performance", "subset": "27", "retained_groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "experience", "scandals" ], "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.354165513299156, "Brier": 0.05119326615645816, "log_loss": 0.17333917768273338, "coverage50": 0.6071111111111112, "coverage70": 0.8072706552706552, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": -0.005752603254012811, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.9375, "interval95": [ -0.048126215945948125, 0.0366210094379225 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.04808188880534647, "2018": 0.056777220452829624, "2020": -0.03378093535575477, "2022": -0.055343183381646455, "2024": 0.05166577081985402 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.354165513299156, "Brier": 0.05119326615645816, "log_loss": 0.17333917768273338, "coverage50": 0.6071111111111112, "coverage70": 0.8072706552706552, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.0057526032540122785, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.055343183381646455, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.582300098505871, "Brier": 0.11571873533754892, "log_loss": 0.3686927030346473, "coverage50": 0.690967365967366, "coverage70": 0.8217560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.557588299276002, "Brier": 0.11589743365570068, "log_loss": 0.36896432201790275, "coverage50": 0.7063519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8342560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.63805564232754, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.62890528061223, "Brier": 0.056388827350660906, "log_loss": 0.18827885181551754, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.8067008547008548, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.009150361715311117, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.0112367721580517, 0.03868785730398505 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": -0.018727953596752833, "2024": 0.06447976217330842 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.63805564232754, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.62890528061223, "Brier": 0.056388827350660906, "log_loss": 0.18827885181551754, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.8067008547008548, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.00915036171531014, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.018727953596752833, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9917027653454724, "Brier": 0.12594806323872382, "log_loss": 0.40012334521931736, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.973782558731601, "Brier": 0.12578867032986046, "log_loss": 0.39933022243336846, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.354165513299156, "Brier": 0.05119326615645816, "log_loss": 0.17333917768273338, "coverage50": 0.6071111111111112, "coverage70": 0.8072706552706552, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.2583395503368301, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.625, "interval95": [ -0.16719746424748436, 0.8478092440435173 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.1110370190660479, "2018": -0.06466740167873652, "2020": 1.3858220238943257, "2022": 0.356203089247904, "2024": -0.27462294071329474 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.354165513299156, "Brier": 0.05119326615645816, "log_loss": 0.17333917768273338, "coverage50": 0.6071111111111112, "coverage70": 0.8072706552706552, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.25833955033683154, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.27462294071329474, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.557588299276002, "Brier": 0.11589743365570068, "log_loss": 0.36896432201790275, "coverage50": 0.7063519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8342560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, { "removed": "experience", "label": "Challenger/open-seat experience", "subset": "23", "retained_groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "prior_performance", "scandals" ], "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.364762472869653, "Brier": 0.05076718131773689, "log_loss": 0.17245261403831436, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8149629629629629, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": -0.01634956282450952, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 0.3125, "interval95": [ -0.041174126919814126, 0.009075260109177651 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.005683040609484991, "2018": -0.044636697427449246, "2020": 0.0318986795276075, "2022": -0.05185029885404546, "2024": -0.011476456759175413 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.364762472869653, "Brier": 0.05076718131773689, "log_loss": 0.17245261403831436, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8149629629629629, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.016349562824508723, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.05185029885404546, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.582300098505871, "Brier": 0.11571873533754892, "log_loss": 0.3686927030346473, "coverage50": 0.690967365967366, "coverage70": 0.8217560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.563176683042913, "Brier": 0.11513387884459877, "log_loss": 0.3673112392236213, "coverage50": 0.690967365967366, "coverage70": 0.8342560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.63805564232754, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.6477926501093005, "Brier": 0.056410402046357055, "log_loss": 0.18862051226295135, "coverage50": 0.5304729344729344, "coverage70": 0.7844786324786325, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": -0.009737007781760187, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 0.5, "interval95": [ -0.020519000425907576, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": -0.02173005729843247, "2024": -0.026954981610368467 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.63805564232754, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.6477926501093005, "Brier": 0.056410402046357055, "log_loss": 0.18862051226295135, "coverage50": 0.5304729344729344, "coverage70": 0.7844786324786325, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.009737007781760454, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.026954981610368467, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9917027653454724, "Brier": 0.12594806323872382, "log_loss": 0.40012334521931736, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.965925757831145, "Brier": 0.1258673815026211, "log_loss": 0.40018586060462924, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.364762472869653, "Brier": 0.05076718131773689, "log_loss": 0.17245261403831436, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8149629629629629, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.2477425907663334, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.6875, "interval95": [ -0.21526622931457312, 0.875287144363249 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.06863817087018642, "2018": -0.1660813195590154, "2020": 1.451501638777688, "2022": 0.359695973775505, "2024": -0.33776516829232417 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.364762472869653, "Brier": 0.05076718131773689, "log_loss": 0.17245261403831436, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8149629629629629, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.2477425907663351, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.33776516829232417, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.563176683042913, "Brier": 0.11513387884459877, "log_loss": 0.3673112392236213, "coverage50": 0.690967365967366, "coverage70": 0.8342560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, { "removed": "scandals", "label": "Scandal news", "subset": "15", "retained_groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "prior_performance", "experience" ], "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.354254816327546, "Brier": 0.05131215373813155, "log_loss": 0.17354661094250515, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": -0.005841906282402487, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 0.1875, "interval95": [ -0.012663120673646411, -4.726186408747779e-05 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.01800884523154611, "2018": -0.00464453383679686, "2020": -0.0010442130278462969, "2022": -0.008671860827439204, "2024": 0.0031599215116160373 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.354254816327546, "Brier": 0.05131215373813155, "log_loss": 0.17354661094250515, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.0058419062824022205, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.01800884523154611, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.582300098505871, "Brier": 0.11571873533754892, "log_loss": 0.3686927030346473, "coverage50": 0.690967365967366, "coverage70": 0.8217560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.589534511634816, "Brier": 0.11633075038510592, "log_loss": 0.36998721706752746, "coverage50": 0.690967365967366, "coverage70": 0.8217560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.63805564232754, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.636662686427626, "Brier": 0.056412596928122574, "log_loss": 0.18853279819240906, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0013929558999143054, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.0013735930285053044, 0.005552460728248221 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": -0.0022893217141755073, "2024": 0.009254101213747035 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.63805564232754, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.636662686427626, "Brier": 0.056412596928122574, "log_loss": 0.18853279819240906, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0013929558999139502, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0022893217141755073, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9917027653454724, "Brier": 0.12594806323872382, "log_loss": 0.40012334521931736, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.983347726643033, "Brier": 0.12586848751203364, "log_loss": 0.4000582557104598, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.354254816327546, "Brier": 0.05131215373813155, "log_loss": 0.17354661094250515, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.25825024730844043, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.6875, "interval95": [ -0.1958799734944078, 0.8670843720894563 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.2672882613466525, "2024": -0.413769108401175 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.641801233046891, "Brier": 0.05655233260950734, "log_loss": 0.1888470653389187, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.029296169410903516, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.413769108401175, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.992805070077184, "Brier": 0.12615875639658347, "log_loss": 0.40067218623947276, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "selections": [ { "test_cycle": 2016, "subset": "0", "lam": 1.0, "blend": 0.0, "validation_MAE_pp": 5.396460171563782, "validation_cycles": [ 2010, 2012, 2014 ], "reason": "Minimum mean earlier-validation MAE; ties prefer fewer factor families, less blending, then lambda nearer one.", "groups": [] }, { "test_cycle": 2018, "subset": "0", "lam": 1.0, "blend": 0.0, "validation_MAE_pp": 5.399365069774355, "validation_cycles": [ 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 ], "reason": "Minimum mean earlier-validation MAE; ties prefer fewer factor families, less blending, then lambda nearer one.", "groups": [] }, { "test_cycle": 2020, "subset": "0", "lam": 1.0, "blend": 0.0, "validation_MAE_pp": 5.015077155910108, "validation_cycles": [ 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 ], "reason": "Minimum mean earlier-validation MAE; ties prefer fewer factor families, less blending, then lambda nearer one.", "groups": [] }, { "test_cycle": 2022, "subset": "27", "lam": 4.0, "blend": 0.25, "validation_MAE_pp": 5.139299230046426, "validation_cycles": [ 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 ], "reason": "Minimum mean earlier-validation MAE; ties prefer fewer factor families, less blending, then lambda nearer one.", "groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "experience", "scandals" ] }, { "test_cycle": 2024, "subset": "31", "lam": 0.25, "blend": 0.25, "validation_MAE_pp": 5.06571075339011, "validation_cycles": [ 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 ], "reason": "Minimum mean earlier-validation MAE; ties prefer fewer factor families, less blending, then lambda nearer one.", "groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "prior_performance", "experience", "scandals" ] }, { "test_cycle": 2026, "subset": "27", "lam": 4.0, "blend": 0.25, "validation_MAE_pp": 4.87140366510768, "validation_cycles": [ 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "reason": "Minimum mean earlier-validation MAE; ties prefer fewer factor families, less blending, then lambda nearer one.", "groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "experience", "scandals" ] } ], "retrospective_best_fixed25": { "subset": "31", "groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "prior_performance", "experience", "scandals" ], "comparison": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.2640921535908429, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.625, "interval95": [ -0.19168435951802626, 0.8688132877693286 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": -0.43547880165573183 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.1451596005519109, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.43547880165573183, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "leave_one_out": [ { "removed": "lean", "label": "State partisan lean", "subset": "62", "retained_groups": [ "incumbency", "prior_performance", "experience", "scandals", "generic_ballot" ], "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 5.090130942717315, "Brier": 0.039396555393049586, "log_loss": 0.15207033643946502, "coverage50": 0.5185185185185185, "coverage70": 0.7084520417853751, "coverage90": 0.923076923076923 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.8076744053434962, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 0.25, "interval95": [ -0.9878634207834267, -0.5918457664470336 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": -0.9878634207834267, "2022": -0.8433140288000285, "2024": -0.5918457664470336 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 5.090130942717315, "Brier": 0.039396555393049586, "log_loss": 0.15207033643946502, "coverage50": 0.5185185185185185, "coverage70": 0.7084520417853751, "coverage90": 0.923076923076923 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.807674405343497, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.9878634207834267, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.4983547420271965, "Brier": 0.07181360256055222, "log_loss": 0.26445450268798476, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.23100153799321, "Brier": 0.07732110751506892, "log_loss": 0.28405800488665434, "coverage50": 0.5432692307692307, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.9583333333333334 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.956588387056086, "Brier": 0.05065468564537349, "log_loss": 0.17684545816585695, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7336182336182335, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.08592210206392743, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.2577663061917823, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": -0.2577663061917823 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.956588387056086, "Brier": 0.05065468564537349, "log_loss": 0.17684545816585695, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7336182336182335, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.08592210206392803, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.2577663061917823, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.337612361524649, "Brier": 0.09679374220722053, "log_loss": 0.3299977850476832, "coverage50": 0.548076923076923, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 5.090130942717315, "Brier": 0.039396555393049586, "log_loss": 0.15207033643946502, "coverage50": 0.5185185185185185, "coverage70": 0.7084520417853751, "coverage90": 0.923076923076923 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.36462425827706707, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 0.5, "interval95": [ -0.8527610048523782, 0.3418344994772138 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": -0.03617422917580715, "2022": -0.03755558071427956, "2024": 0.03327720858572647 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.295940737808604, "Brier": 0.037645449116347145, "log_loss": 0.1418432691517824, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.013484200434786153, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.03755558071427956, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.4983547420271965, "Brier": 0.07181360256055222, "log_loss": 0.26445450268798476, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.505253641053274, "Brier": 0.07280198272329741, "log_loss": 0.26648894736872797, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8584401709401709, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.848599994509482, "Brier": 0.04990954646288043, "log_loss": 0.17353176706553985, "coverage50": 0.4681861348528015, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.02206629048267524, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ 0.0, 0.06619887144802572 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": 0.06619887144802572 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.848599994509482, "Brier": 0.04990954646288043, "log_loss": 0.17353176706553985, "coverage50": 0.4681861348528015, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.022066290482675832, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.1788039381269275, "Brier": 0.09522553215974226, "log_loss": 0.3244137996711442, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.295940737808604, "Brier": 0.037645449116347145, "log_loss": 0.1418432691517824, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.42956594663164244, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.22763802981961812, 1.2935236910848333 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 1.2935236910848333, "2022": 0.22281217862971214, "2024": -0.22763802981961812 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.295940737808604, "Brier": 0.037645449116347145, "log_loss": 0.1418432691517824, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.4295659466316426, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.22763802981961812, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.505253641053274, "Brier": 0.07280198272329741, "log_loss": 0.26648894736872797, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8584401709401709, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, { "removed": "experience", "label": "Challenger/open-seat experience", "subset": "55", "retained_groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "prior_performance", "scandals", "generic_ballot" ], "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.291440024227326, "Brier": 0.03676562705101322, "log_loss": 0.13998564455142778, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7716049382716049, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.008983486853507175, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 0.5, "interval95": [ -0.022756450016903074, 0.008019596904121684 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.008019596904121684, "2022": -0.022756450016903074, "2024": -0.012213607447740138 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.291440024227326, "Brier": 0.03676562705101322, "log_loss": 0.13998564455142778, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7716049382716049, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.008983486853507472, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.022756450016903074, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.4983547420271965, "Brier": 0.07181360256055222, "log_loss": 0.26445450268798476, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.4910865737833334, "Brier": 0.07143977438197067, "log_loss": 0.26378696023071774, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.887449797495449, "Brier": 0.0502090856645132, "log_loss": 0.17538144920228846, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7336182336182335, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.01678351250329128, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.05035053750987384, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": -0.05035053750987384 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.887449797495449, "Brier": 0.0502090856645132, "log_loss": 0.17538144920228846, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7336182336182335, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.016783512503291576, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.05035053750987384, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.170492549582223, "Brier": 0.09590148440835548, "log_loss": 0.3285914406256207, "coverage50": 0.548076923076923, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.291440024227326, "Brier": 0.03676562705101322, "log_loss": 0.13998564455142778, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7716049382716049, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.434066660212922, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.2731288458530847, 1.3377175171647622 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 1.3377175171647622, "2022": 0.23761130932708863, "2024": -0.2731288458530847 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.291440024227326, "Brier": 0.03676562705101322, "log_loss": 0.13998564455142778, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7716049382716049, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.4340666602129213, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.2731288458530847, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.4910865737833334, "Brier": 0.07143977438197067, "log_loss": 0.26378696023071774, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, { "removed": "scandals", "label": "Scandal news", "subset": "47", "retained_groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "prior_performance", "experience", "generic_ballot" ], "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.282073830916312, "Brier": 0.03705746394918496, "log_loss": 0.14047322667616557, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0003827064575057844, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.0014661067116215065, 0.0014769890537409402 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0011372370303979196, "2022": -0.0014661067116215065, "2024": 0.0014769890537409402 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.282073830916312, "Brier": 0.03705746394918496, "log_loss": 0.14047322667616557, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.00038270645750593246, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0014661067116215065, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.4983547420271965, "Brier": 0.07181360256055222, "log_loss": 0.26445450268798476, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.4971295558879, "Brier": 0.07189506250107558, "log_loss": 0.26461983079980905, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.867262044091309, "Brier": 0.05015970012455037, "log_loss": 0.17490443666843558, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0034042409008492314, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ 0.0, 0.010212722702547694 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": 0.010212722702547694 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.867262044091309, "Brier": 0.05015970012455037, "log_loss": 0.17490443666843558, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0034042409008492314, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.182429130994618, "Brier": 0.09579426134738216, "log_loss": 0.3276671242505242, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.282073830916312, "Brier": 0.03705746394918496, "log_loss": 0.14047322667616557, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.44343285352393497, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.25943824935160364, 1.3308351572910384 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 1.3308351572910384, "2022": 0.2589016526323702, "2024": -0.25943824935160364 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.282073830916312, "Brier": 0.03705746394918496, "log_loss": 0.14047322667616557, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.4434328535239347, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.25943824935160364, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.088448505558888, "Brier": 0.08727960967855991, "log_loss": 0.3059908463209775, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.4971295558879, "Brier": 0.07189506250107558, "log_loss": 0.26461983079980905, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, { "removed": "generic_ballot", "label": "Generic ballot", "subset": "31", "retained_groups": [ "lean", "incumbency", "prior_performance", "experience", "scandals" ], "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.313931852179794, "Brier": 0.03700858344708547, "log_loss": 0.14046443157221805, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": -0.03147531480597513, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 0.5, "interval95": [ -0.07008081611414774, 0.005091965477239668 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.005091965477239668, "2022": -0.02943709378101733, "2024": -0.07008081611414774 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.282456537373818, "Brier": 0.037010665676239896, "log_loss": 0.14038030395387988, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.313931852179794, "Brier": 0.03700858344708547, "log_loss": 0.14046443157221805, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.03147531480597543, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.07008081611414774, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.4983547420271965, "Brier": 0.07181360256055222, "log_loss": 0.26445450268798476, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.52338370907655, "Brier": 0.07185303368736125, "log_loss": 0.2647466870368405, "coverage50": 0.7126068376068376, "coverage70": 0.8376068376068376, "coverage90": 0.9791666666666666 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.84825595426513, "Brier": 0.04737057220930221, "log_loss": 0.16766574510221113, "coverage50": 0.5052231718898385, "coverage70": 0.7336182336182335, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.02241033072702736, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ 0.0, 0.06723099218108208 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": 0.06723099218108208 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.870666284992158, "Brier": 0.05014852121499131, "log_loss": 0.17486016865559995, "coverage50": 0.45584045584045585, "coverage70": 0.7459639126305793, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.84825595426513, "Brier": 0.04737057220930221, "log_loss": 0.16766574510221113, "coverage50": 0.5052231718898385, "coverage70": 0.7336182336182335, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.022410330727027805, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.190675959165117, "Brier": 0.09576918174811971, "log_loss": 0.3275705856536866, "coverage50": 0.5758547008547009, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.15854013325917, "Brier": 0.08949764080821458, "log_loss": 0.31076545792426885, "coverage50": 0.6036324786324786, "coverage70": 0.7681623931623932, "coverage90": 0.907051282051282 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.725506684440247, "Brier": 0.04639595914403847, "log_loss": 0.16582035548424248, "coverage50": 0.4928774928774929, "coverage70": 0.7583095916429249, "coverage90": 0.9102564102564102 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.313931852179794, "Brier": 0.03700858344708547, "log_loss": 0.14046443157221805, "coverage50": 0.6082621082621082, "coverage70": 0.7844254510921177, "coverage90": 0.9487179487179488 }, "inference": { "cycles": 3, "mean_gain_pp": 0.41157483226045405, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.3309960545194923, 1.3347898857378802 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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Cross-cohort scores cannot establish a variable effect because their race and training coverage differ.", "Predictive removal does not isolate a causal effect when remaining variables are correlated or encode related information.", "The all-subsets winner on the final evaluation data is retrospective. The earlier-selected-subsets algorithm is the comparison protected from selecting variables on the target outcome.", "Only five primary core test elections, three generic-ballot elections, and one financial election are available. Financial inference is not estimable.", "Current scenarios are experimental outputs and do not change the active forecasts or their uncertainty." ] }