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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.3000837849576534, "2018": -0.44553480748797414, "2020": 0.26568654906384115, "2022": 0.6295180834185503, "2024": -0.07101956115638597 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.47675825387685, "Brier": 0.05374591949840461, "log_loss": 0.17734390884806847, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.1357468097591381, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.44553480748797414, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.7793610572196727, "Brier": 0.12119249331368427, "log_loss": 0.38295983751043583, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8134226884226884, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.4977243461869865, "Brier": 0.05439522611819932, "log_loss": 0.1794123815227427, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7682393162393162, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.47675825387685, "Brier": 0.05374591949840461, "log_loss": 0.17734390884806847, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.020966092310137085, "cycles_improved": 4, "two_sided_p": 0.125, "interval95": [ 0.004845814915807623, 0.04087683883001532 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0191687427645304, "2018": 0.05708991276085351, "2020": -0.00454264984221453, "2022": 0.025921524762202885, "2024": 0.007192931105313161 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.4977243461869865, "Brier": 0.05439522611819932, "log_loss": 0.1794123815227427, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7682393162393162, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.47675825387685, "Brier": 0.05374591949840461, "log_loss": 0.17734390884806847, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.020966092310136908, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.00454264984221453, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.83090587256297, "Brier": 0.12259048130860954, "log_loss": 0.3869659016155555, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7842560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.7793610572196727, "Brier": 0.12119249331368427, "log_loss": 0.38295983751043583, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8134226884226884, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "all_three": { "test_races": 130, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4585616461480715, "Brier": 0.053133177011427016, "log_loss": 0.17548803407981478, "coverage50": 0.5772877492877493, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.15394341748791557, "cycles_improved": 3, "two_sided_p": 0.5, "interval95": [ -0.17150270106739587, 0.43760365971857207 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.31930406193942584, "2018": -0.37486745726878734, "2020": 0.2654975272376685, "2022": 0.64195632373817, "2024": -0.08217336820689924 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4585616461480715, "Brier": 0.053133177011427016, "log_loss": 0.17548803407981478, "coverage50": 0.5772877492877493, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.15394341748791618, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.37486745726878734, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.741416097972796, "Brier": 0.11977662962979481, "log_loss": 0.37904262918724896, "coverage50": 0.6271853146853148, "coverage70": 0.8134226884226884, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.4977243461869865, "Brier": 0.05439522611819932, "log_loss": 0.1794123815227427, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7682393162393162, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4585616461480715, "Brier": 0.053133177011427016, "log_loss": 0.17548803407981478, "coverage50": 0.5772877492877493, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.039162700038915685, "cycles_improved": 3, "two_sided_p": 0.25, "interval95": [ 0.004046625759188238, 0.08353998654824472 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.03838901974630282, "2018": 0.1277572629800403, "2020": -0.004731671668387172, "2022": 0.038359765081822594, "2024": -0.003960875945200115 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.4977243461869865, "Brier": 0.05439522611819932, "log_loss": 0.1794123815227427, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7682393162393162, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4585616461480715, "Brier": 0.053133177011427016, "log_loss": 0.17548803407981478, "coverage50": 0.5772877492877493, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.03916270003891498, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.004731671668387172, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.83090587256297, "Brier": 0.12259048130860954, "log_loss": 0.3869659016155555, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7842560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.741416097972796, "Brier": 0.11977662962979481, "log_loss": 0.37904262918724896, "coverage50": 0.6271853146853148, "coverage70": 0.8134226884226884, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "consensus_and_candidates": { "test_races": 130, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.485782632913939, "Brier": 0.053457181181732184, "log_loss": 0.17679911804911058, "coverage50": 0.5846951566951567, "coverage70": 0.7833390313390314, "coverage90": 0.9766153846153847 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.1267224307220472, "cycles_improved": 3, "two_sided_p": 0.5, "interval95": [ -0.2334979049582911, 0.41698475106452654 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.5542097063136273, "2018": 0.15108674776861308, "2020": -0.18791102477955857, "2022": -0.343565316957549, "2024": -0.2934916372194105 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.858123251136293, "Brier": 0.05420326183835809, "log_loss": 0.18465476245575557, "coverage50": 0.5453105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7374017094017095, "coverage90": 0.9224615384615384 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.2456181875003054, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.5542097063136273, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.9007601198683775, "Brier": 0.1199511199948041, "log_loss": 0.3859047240250236, "coverage50": 0.6143648018648019, "coverage70": 0.833119658119658, "coverage90": 0.9625 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "lean_reference": { "test_races": 130, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.611557628110572, "Brier": 0.05543999344941469, "log_loss": 0.1862100014805143, "coverage50": 0.5378803418803418, "coverage70": 0.7767863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0009474355254151412, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.11875164928961093, 0.12159395586585635 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.20265659310976059, "2024": -0.19791941548268488 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.611557628110572, "Brier": 0.05543999344941469, "log_loss": 0.1862100014805143, "coverage50": 0.5378803418803418, "coverage70": 0.7767863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0009474355254157629, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.19791941548268488, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.912725236113652, "Brier": 0.12364479429537838, "log_loss": 0.39433011128089174, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.381206492361131, "Brier": 0.05088941269141474, "log_loss": 0.1727009597985203, "coverage50": 0.5994188034188035, "coverage70": 0.7995783475783476, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.23129857127485592, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.16283913727250993, 0.8265945839816187 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.14556019611066517, "2018": -0.06182194635896465, "2020": 1.3845489605320918, "2022": 0.20995271220294498, "2024": -0.23062667389112734 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.381206492361131, "Brier": 0.05088941269141474, "log_loss": 0.1727009597985203, "coverage50": 0.5994188034188035, "coverage70": 0.7995783475783476, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.23129857127485653, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.23062667389112734, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.567952182768413, "Brier": 0.11513833295984402, "log_loss": 0.36664558402593356, "coverage50": 0.7063519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8342560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_reference": { "test_races": 130, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.638055642327541, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": -0.025550578691554103, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.24826146504070498, 0.17160972896604268 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.28601621494340446, "2024": -0.413769108401175 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.638055642327541, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.025550578691553305, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.413769108401175, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.9917027653454724, "Brier": 0.12594806323872382, "log_loss": 0.40012334521931736, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.2640921535908429, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.625, "interval95": [ -0.19168435951802626, 0.8688132877693286 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.06295513026070143, "2018": -0.12144462213156615, "2020": 1.4196029592500805, "2022": 0.41154627262955046, "2024": -0.32628871153314876 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.2640921535908438, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.32628871153314876, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.582300098505871, "Brier": 0.11571873533754892, "log_loss": 0.3686927030346473, "coverage50": 0.690967365967366, "coverage70": 0.8217560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "experts_and_lean": { "test_races": 130, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.286214258321653, "Brier": 0.049723611165399965, "log_loss": 0.16617314496650043, "coverage50": 0.5840569800569801, "coverage70": 0.8063931623931623, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.32629080531433363, "cycles_improved": 4, "two_sided_p": 0.25, "interval95": [ 0.010553783370832903, 0.7040892662312984 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.033395352194350636, "2018": 0.07857037641640074, "2020": 1.277309399626657, "2022": 0.37925754068309203, "2024": -0.20845854186740587 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.612505063635988, "Brier": 0.0563573893524955, "log_loss": 0.1890317228014797, "coverage50": 0.5301880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7916011396011398, "coverage90": 0.9381538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.300490238225367, "Brier": 0.05037141698003145, "log_loss": 0.16948811214422768, "coverage50": 0.5920113960113961, "coverage70": 0.7918860398860399, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.3120148254106203, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.20845854186740587, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.4728019799947867, "Brier": 0.11386958299077213, "log_loss": 0.36236138753980207, "coverage50": 0.6938519813519813, "coverage70": 0.8217560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_same_index_without_experts": { "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.611557628110572, "Brier": 0.05543999344941469, "log_loss": 0.1862100014805143, "coverage50": 0.5378803418803418, "coverage70": 0.7767863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.286214258321653, "Brier": 0.049723611165399965, "log_loss": 0.16617314496650043, "coverage50": 0.5840569800569801, "coverage70": 0.8063931623931623, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.3253433697889185, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.08972154956390685, 0.7040892662312984 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.1355784964966782, "2018": 0.16148668789938947, "2020": 1.065824318452571, "2022": 0.24289121693120386, "2024": 0.02093612916474985 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.611557628110572, "Brier": 0.05543999344941469, "log_loss": 0.1862100014805143, "coverage50": 0.5378803418803418, "coverage70": 0.7767863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.286214258321653, "Brier": 0.049723611165399965, "log_loss": 0.16617314496650043, "coverage50": 0.5840569800569801, "coverage70": 0.8063931623931623, "coverage90": 0.9535384615384614 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.32534336978891876, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.02093612916474985, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.912725236113652, "Brier": 0.12364479429537838, "log_loss": 0.39433011128089174, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.441196835182038, "Brier": 0.11217040443071044, "log_loss": 0.3573964831545921, "coverage50": 0.653467365967366, "coverage70": 0.8566045066045067, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.381206492361131, "Brier": 0.05088941269141474, "log_loss": 0.1727009597985203, "coverage50": 0.5994188034188035, "coverage70": 0.7995783475783476, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.300490238225367, "Brier": 0.05037141698003145, "log_loss": 0.16948811214422768, "coverage50": 0.5920113960113961, "coverage70": 0.7918860398860399, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.08071625413576297, "cycles_improved": 4, "two_sided_p": 0.1875, "interval95": [ -0.026049144442487203, 0.16738261526913822 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.18095899941123683, "2018": 0.12983517764439645, "2020": 1.0446283350619208, "2022": 0.2623564278608228, "2024": 0.1445822899671576 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.638055642327541, "Brier": 0.05644663818784945, "log_loss": 0.18856030355535555, "coverage50": 0.523065527065527, "coverage70": 0.7992934472934474, "coverage90": 0.9458461538461538 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.285583396338433, "Brier": 0.05054877108932508, "log_loss": 0.16847752351835144, "coverage50": 0.5772421652421653, "coverage70": 0.8063931623931623, "coverage90": 0.968923076923077 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.35247224598910787, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.12983517764439645, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9917027653454724, "Brier": 0.12594806323872382, "log_loss": 0.40012334521931736, "coverage50": 0.6396853146853148, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.9596153846153846 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.4851739445898375, "Brier": 0.11435919670832861, "log_loss": 0.36373250821191194, "coverage50": 0.653467365967366, "coverage70": 0.8217560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.348412910045144, "Brier": 0.05102500096573369, "log_loss": 0.17293515705163492, "coverage50": 0.5843190883190883, "coverage70": 0.8069857549857551, "coverage90": 0.960923076923077 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.280915591425442, "Brier": 0.050660689473909525, "log_loss": 0.17023287718711, "coverage50": 0.5917264957264956, "coverage70": 0.7989857549857551, "coverage90": 0.9532307692307693 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.06749731861970068, "cycles_improved": 4, "two_sided_p": 0.25, "interval95": [ -0.018788882345323454, 0.12963867892599684 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.06736525512217284, "2018": -0.48991846426632435, "2020": 0.2000824536112349, "2022": 0.5687664047585033, "2024": -0.0036483650142966617 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.399466957576186, "Brier": 0.06587910408531958, "log_loss": 0.2140497236806524, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.041583354793388594, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.48991846426632435, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.907482197098706, "Brier": 0.12526291664998265, "log_loss": 0.39511419849021645, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.399466957576186, "Brier": 0.06587910408531958, "log_loss": 0.2140497236806524, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.014066155892987098, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.010349540692421045, 0.01778277109355315 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference.", "holm_p": 0.75 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.010713053682414042, "2018": 0.018763580973419902, "2020": 0.013571874150627217, "2022": 0.018907409685149368, "2024": 0.00837486097332496 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.399466957576186, "Brier": 0.06587910408531958, "log_loss": 0.2140497236806524, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.014066155892987098, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.00837486097332496, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.907482197098706, "Brier": 0.12526291664998265, "log_loss": 0.39511419849021645, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "consensus": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.399879660060894, "Brier": 0.06579804979236668, "log_loss": 0.21382777862003963, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.041170652308680736, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.26939035023134145, 0.35030313633539534 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.07024809776807572, "2018": -0.49230169689021697, "2020": 0.20020143728201933, "2022": 0.5754556849154593, "2024": -0.007254065995782266 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.399879660060894, "Brier": 0.06579804979236668, "log_loss": 0.21382777862003963, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.04117065230868011, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.49230169689021697, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.908356059213022, "Brier": 0.1251405741870596, "log_loss": 0.3947872779015653, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.399879660060894, "Brier": 0.06579804979236668, "log_loss": 0.21382777862003963, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.01365345340827897, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.0077036078723113025, 0.020200125782470924 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 0.75 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.007830211036511159, "2018": 0.016380348349527285, "2020": 0.013690857821411662, "2022": 0.02559668984210539, "2024": 0.004769159991839356 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.399879660060894, "Brier": 0.06579804979236668, "log_loss": 0.21382777862003963, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.013653453408278615, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.004769159991839356, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.908356059213022, "Brier": 0.1251405741870596, "log_loss": 0.3947872779015653, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "consensus_curve": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.394825143844376, "Brier": 0.06581034485412587, "log_loss": 0.2137794728454661, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.04622516852519913, "cycles_improved": 3, "two_sided_p": 0.6875, "interval95": [ -0.2675337841195879, 0.3577216220733389 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.0699440467758361, "2018": -0.4914334743673172, "2020": 0.20657554927984823, "2022": 0.5844407312635749, "2024": 0.0014870832257258826 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.394825143844376, "Brier": 0.06581034485412587, "log_loss": 0.2137794728454661, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.04622516852519798, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.4914334743673172, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.897706364016782, "Brier": 0.12515845787342122, "log_loss": 0.39475227482438313, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.394825143844376, "Brier": 0.06581034485412587, "log_loss": 0.2137794728454661, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.01870796962479737, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.011779985566221285, 0.0274640975206502 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 0.75 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.008134262028750783, "2018": 0.017248570872427038, "2020": 0.020064969819240552, "2022": 0.03458173619022098, "2024": 0.013510309213347504 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.394825143844376, "Brier": 0.06581034485412587, "log_loss": 0.2137794728454661, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.018707969624796483, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.008134262028750783, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.897706364016782, "Brier": 0.12515845787342122, "log_loss": 0.39475227482438313, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "all_three": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.379573287191436, "Brier": 0.06561970453248049, "log_loss": 0.21302688344559076, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.061477025178138155, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.24375986796809093, 0.37481897651613727 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.05545415437669998, "2018": -0.4594904633808601, "2020": 0.2151262046788256, "2022": 0.6143581342721047, "2024": -0.007154595302679478 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.379573287191436, "Brier": 0.06561970453248049, "log_loss": 0.21302688344559076, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.06147702517813869, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.4594904633808601, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.8672898603461237, "Brier": 0.12464453261454853, "log_loss": 0.3931694203152819, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8259226884226883, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.379573287191436, "Brier": 0.06561970453248049, "log_loss": 0.21302688344559076, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.033959826277736395, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.0167202390887752, 0.05257303749598909 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 0.75 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0226241544278869, "2018": 0.04919158185888417, "2020": 0.02861562521821792, "2022": 0.06449913919875083, "2024": 0.0048686306849421435 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.379573287191436, "Brier": 0.06561970453248049, "log_loss": 0.21302688344559076, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.03395982627773719, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.0048686306849421435, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.8672898603461237, "Brier": 0.12464453261454853, "log_loss": 0.3931694203152819, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8259226884226883, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "consensus_and_candidates": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.420573209312332, "Brier": 0.065632824210662, "log_loss": 0.21377037221278825, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.020477103057242374, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.875, "interval95": [ -0.3085171490125518, 0.3500559074948166 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.12793734974268833, "2018": -0.5324832623395106, "2020": 0.18134001077901107, "2022": 0.5873473042952835, "2024": -0.00588118770588375 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.420573209312332, "Brier": 0.065632824210662, "log_loss": 0.21377037221278825, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.020477103057242374, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.5324832623395106, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.9112729986947263, "Brier": 0.12497979481952952, "log_loss": 0.39490156503203006, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8259226884226883, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.420573209312332, "Brier": 0.065632824210662, "log_loss": 0.21377037221278825, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": -0.007040095843159388, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.6875, "interval95": [ -0.03238957090609525, 0.018961149769552054 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.04985904093810145, "2018": -0.023801217099766347, "2020": -0.005170568681596599, "2022": 0.03748830922192958, "2024": 0.006142038281737872 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.420573209312332, "Brier": 0.065632824210662, "log_loss": 0.21377037221278825, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.007040095843159122, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.04985904093810145, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.9112729986947263, "Brier": 0.12497979481952952, "log_loss": 0.39490156503203006, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8259226884226883, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } } }, "indices": { "experts_only": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.0036332901765181447, "2018": -0.20777428806258502, "2020": 1.284097507918962, "2022": 0.22414129129533933, "2024": -0.2983958979272212 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.241363247759979, "Brier": 0.06013845876465899, "log_loss": 0.20230851259008853, "coverage50": 0.608034188034188, "coverage70": 0.7847863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.19968706460959496, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.2983958979272212, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.6691874232683, "Brier": 0.11707929458607107, "log_loss": 0.3737090316604815, "coverage50": 0.6784673659673659, "coverage70": 0.8564782439782441, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "experts_and_lean": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4273188638367404, "Brier": 0.06560596453208911, "log_loss": 0.21451481284414853, "coverage50": 0.5846723646723646, "coverage70": 0.8013675213675213, "coverage90": 0.9615384615384615 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.013731448532834279, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.17738041133148813, 0.21857475692999095 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.3642912615499849, "2024": -0.29563401888581353 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4273188638367404, "Brier": 0.06560596453208911, "log_loss": 0.21451481284414853, "coverage50": 0.5846723646723646, "coverage70": 0.8013675213675213, "coverage90": 0.9615384615384615 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.013731448532833923, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.29563401888581353, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.8881872567574485, "Brier": 0.12374382047633456, "log_loss": 0.3913986159965306, "coverage50": 0.6730186480186481, "coverage70": 0.8316045066045067, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.2233107691570675, "Brier": 0.060689907706674304, "log_loss": 0.2021352350450274, "coverage50": 0.6003418803418803, "coverage70": 0.7939601139601141, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.21773954321250732, "cycles_improved": 3, "two_sided_p": 0.5625, "interval95": [ -0.09846130001316844, 0.6689766759926468 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.007593513364951399, "2018": -0.07172074499385062, "2020": 1.096029216135899, "2022": 0.23502499327708293, "2024": -0.17822926172154618 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.2233107691570675, "Brier": 0.060689907706674304, "log_loss": 0.2021352350450274, "coverage50": 0.6003418803418803, "coverage70": 0.7939601139601141, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.21773954321250688, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.17822926172154618, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.621925665520289, "Brier": 0.11727073066076174, "log_loss": 0.37288942711754847, "coverage50": 0.6688519813519813, "coverage70": 0.85243783993784, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_same_index_without_experts": { "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4273188638367404, "Brier": 0.06560596453208911, "log_loss": 0.21451481284414853, "coverage50": 0.5846723646723646, "coverage70": 0.8013675213675213, "coverage90": 0.9615384615384615 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.013731448532834279, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.17738041133148813, 0.21857475692999095 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.3642912615499849, "2024": -0.29563401888581353 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.4273188638367404, "Brier": 0.06560596453208911, "log_loss": 0.21451481284414853, "coverage50": 0.5846723646723646, "coverage70": 0.8013675213675213, "coverage90": 0.9615384615384615 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.013731448532833923, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.29563401888581353, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.8881872567574485, "Brier": 0.12374382047633456, "log_loss": 0.3913986159965306, "coverage50": 0.6730186480186481, "coverage70": 0.8316045066045067, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.284770411144217, "Brier": 0.05978621304814381, "log_loss": 0.2020446774736456, "coverage50": 0.6234188034188033, "coverage70": 0.7791452991452991, "coverage90": 0.9482051282051283 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.2233107691570675, "Brier": 0.060689907706674304, "log_loss": 0.2021352350450274, "coverage50": 0.6003418803418803, "coverage70": 0.7939601139601141, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.06145964198715035, "cycles_improved": 4, "two_sided_p": 0.3125, "interval95": [ -0.03283336956295191, 0.16365354109437852 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.03757995381024948, "2018": 0.12159445521833989, "2020": -0.10357146701591269, "2022": 0.22674216990843643, "2024": 0.02495309801463863 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.284770411144217, "Brier": 0.05978621304814381, "log_loss": 0.2020446774736456, "coverage50": 0.6234188034188033, "coverage70": 0.7791452991452991, "coverage90": 0.9482051282051283 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.2233107691570675, "Brier": 0.060689907706674304, "log_loss": 0.2021352350450274, "coverage50": 0.6003418803418803, "coverage70": 0.7939601139601141, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.061459641987149816, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.10357146701591269, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.67268239475946, "Brier": 0.11606822916720853, "log_loss": 0.37136532123613686, "coverage50": 0.6938519813519813, "coverage70": 0.8175893550893552, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.621925665520289, "Brier": 0.11727073066076174, "log_loss": 0.37288942711754847, "coverage50": 0.6688519813519813, "coverage70": 0.85243783993784, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } } }, "experts_and_candidates": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.427401580129083, "Brier": 0.06667607906755954, "log_loss": 0.2174687614246432, "coverage50": 0.5621652421652421, "coverage70": 0.7865527065527065, "coverage90": 0.9615384615384615 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.013648732240491767, "cycles_improved": 1, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ -0.2779109339974191, 0.31885713071889443 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.5314285511981574, "2024": -0.4631848899956985 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.427401580129083, "Brier": 0.06667607906755954, "log_loss": 0.2174687614246432, "coverage50": 0.5621652421652421, "coverage70": 0.7865527065527065, "coverage90": 0.9615384615384615 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.013648732240491235, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.4631848899956985, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.928661432598756, "Brier": 0.12610271298588233, "log_loss": 0.3981892217657954, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.81493783993784, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.241363247759979, "Brier": 0.06013845876465899, "log_loss": 0.20230851259008853, "coverage50": 0.608034188034188, "coverage70": 0.7847863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.193445854116956, "Brier": 0.06092078710397364, "log_loss": 0.20240538825219728, "coverage50": 0.6083190883190883, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0479173936430235, "cycles_improved": 4, "two_sided_p": 0.375, "interval95": [ -0.04548823312283812, 0.1185087594061911 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.03430582759573131, "2018": 0.11428422593908394, "2020": -0.12534373971633528, "2022": 0.1476346907561501, "2024": 0.06870596364048742 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.241363247759979, "Brier": 0.06013845876465899, "log_loss": 0.20230851259008853, "coverage50": 0.608034188034188, "coverage70": 0.7847863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.193445854116956, "Brier": 0.06092078710397364, "log_loss": 0.20240538825219728, "coverage50": 0.6083190883190883, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.047917393643023054, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.12534373971633528, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.6691874232683, "Brier": 0.11707929458607107, "log_loss": 0.3737090316604815, "coverage50": 0.6784673659673659, "coverage70": 0.8564782439782441, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.6142060894489907, "Brier": 0.11794829767799767, "log_loss": 0.3746273155052381, "coverage50": 0.6784673659673659, "coverage70": 0.8342560217560218, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } } } } }, "final_on_cutoff_scope": { "residual": { "cook": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.404834446158565, "Brier": 0.06559917311725184, "log_loss": 0.21328373695941463, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.036215866211008765, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.875, "interval95": [ -0.2778643718961596, 0.3450406507325102 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.06864342875112062, "2018": -0.5072949778164726, "2020": 0.2012065027197405, "2022": 0.5607918727516648, "2024": -0.004980637848768232 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.404834446158565, "Brier": 0.06559917311725184, "log_loss": 0.21328373695941463, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.03621586621100903, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.5072949778164726, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.9155043720384826, "Brier": 0.12481590920086658, "log_loss": 0.3938385154665824, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.404834446158565, "Brier": 0.06559917311725184, "log_loss": 0.21328373695941463, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.008698667310607, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.004606192475349502, 0.012412647118912545 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 0.75 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.009434880053466266, "2018": 0.0013870674232716595, "2020": 0.014695923259132826, "2022": 0.01093287767831086, "2024": 0.0070425881388533895 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.404834446158565, "Brier": 0.06559917311725184, "log_loss": 0.21328373695941463, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.008698667310607533, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.0013870674232716595, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.9155043720384826, "Brier": 0.12481590920086658, "log_loss": 0.3938385154665824, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "sabato": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.385470936455477, "Brier": 0.0647279301594437, "log_loss": 0.21110625298144065, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.05557937591409719, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.22233925612561176, 0.3457181219940031 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.06020267265937651, "2018": -0.42013355196362134, "2020": 0.19697158517238744, "2022": 0.5688379272264266, "2024": -0.007576408205330232 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.385470936455477, "Brier": 0.0647279301594437, "log_loss": 0.21110625298144065, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.05557937591409701, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.42013355196362134, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.879816441713659, "Brier": 0.12290823255568455, "log_loss": 0.38925394692274795, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8259226884226883, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.385470936455477, "Brier": 0.0647279301594437, "log_loss": 0.21110625298144065, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.02806217701369542, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.008556078242345323, 0.05901708353864423 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.05512806161140027, "2018": -0.4694249323141193, "2020": 0.20419188191463356, "2022": 0.5690769040440538, "2024": -0.004521653472786991 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.392211484657499, "Brier": 0.06529626759398378, "log_loss": 0.2124443446477678, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.048838827712075705, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.4694249323141193, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.8939045288461287, "Brier": 0.12412134994036483, "log_loss": 0.392106166127167, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.392211484657499, "Brier": 0.06529626759398378, "log_loss": 0.2124443446477678, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.021321628811674386, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.012934574741678074, 0.031241431343654914 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 0.75 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.022950247193186613, "2018": 0.03925711292562495, "2020": 0.017681302454025882, "2022": 0.01921790897069986, "2024": 0.007501572514834631 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.392211484657499, "Brier": 0.06529626759398378, "log_loss": 0.2124443446477678, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7803418803418803, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.02132162881167421, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.007501572514834631, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.8939045288461287, "Brier": 0.12412134994036483, "log_loss": 0.392106166127167, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8092560217560217, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "consensus_curve": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.383733326747355, "Brier": 0.0652243821838105, "log_loss": 0.21212148009227608, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.05731698562221972, "cycles_improved": 3, "two_sided_p": 0.6875, "interval95": [ -0.2464339385509228, 0.3613068422678019 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.0482566025826614, "2018": -0.4660620432448108, "2020": 0.2142730395624799, "2022": 0.5818575463257849, "2024": 0.004772988050306015 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.383733326747355, "Brier": 0.0652243821838105, "log_loss": 0.21212148009227608, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.05731698562221954, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.4660620432448108, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.879195150847687, "Brier": 0.12397525869277608, "log_loss": 0.3916105628876586, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8259226884226883, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.383733326747355, "Brier": 0.0652243821838105, "log_loss": 0.21212148009227608, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.029799786721817954, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.02202993069361723, 0.037455244403532276 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 0.75 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.02982170622192548, "2018": 0.04262000199493343, "2020": 0.02776246010187222, "2022": 0.03199855125243101, "2024": 0.016796214037927637 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.383733326747355, "Brier": 0.0652243821838105, "log_loss": 0.21212148009227608, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7877492877492878, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.029799786721818045, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": -0.016796214037927637, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.9352943806482097, "Brier": 0.12552574653610182, "log_loss": 0.3960642438935748, "coverage50": 0.6563519813519814, "coverage70": 0.7910742035742035, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.879195150847687, "Brier": 0.12397525869277608, "log_loss": 0.3916105628876586, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8259226884226883, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "all_three": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "versus_active": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.367016071984106, "Brier": 0.06444891930909906, "log_loss": 0.20983203803337624, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7723646723646723, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.07403424038546884, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.19196399220979127, 0.37019184335113325 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.05313837511909192, "2018": -0.3885594005160735, "2020": 0.22070797824166366, "2022": 0.5944176410153377, "2024": -0.003256641694491691 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.367016071984106, "Brier": 0.06444891930909906, "log_loss": 0.20983203803337624, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7723646723646723, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.07403424038546813, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.3885594005160735, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.8391016009098373, "Brier": 0.12221258144623828, "log_loss": 0.38682863985017846, "coverage50": 0.6438519813519814, "coverage70": 0.8134226884226884, "coverage90": 0.9652777777777779 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "versus_controls": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.413533113469173, "Brier": 0.06595891562498084, "log_loss": 0.21450741966745418, "coverage50": 0.5613105413105414, "coverage70": 0.7726495726495727, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.367016071984106, "Brier": 0.06444891930909906, "log_loss": 0.20983203803337624, "coverage50": 0.5536182336182336, "coverage70": 0.7723646723646723, "coverage90": 0.9712820512820514 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.04651704148506708, "cycles_improved": 5, "two_sided_p": 0.0625, "interval95": [ 0.019159666501373705, 0.08575254634662484 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.05900326612797269, "2018": -0.15559214854799608, "2020": -0.15696381858258146, "2022": -0.5409717072711073, "2024": -0.3125875768432742 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.686074015844161, "Brier": 0.06499255050568539, "log_loss": 0.21857722471584093, "coverage50": 0.5687179487179487, "coverage70": 0.7560683760683761, "coverage90": 0.925128205128205 }, "MAE_gain_pp": -0.2450237034745868, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.5409717072711073, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.975605627017663, "Brier": 0.12191080631982247, "log_loss": 0.3922684445592649, "coverage50": 0.6114801864801864, "coverage70": 0.833119658119658, "coverage90": 0.9625 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "lean_reference": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": 0.0 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.284770411144217, "Brier": 0.05978621304814381, "log_loss": 0.2020446774736456, "coverage50": 0.6234188034188033, "coverage70": 0.7791452991452991, "coverage90": 0.9482051282051283 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.15627990122535698, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.9375, "interval95": [ -0.16459631206840974, 0.6827539345223783 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. Five-cycle bootstrap intervals are exploratory; nested training creates dependence. No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.02998644044529808, "2018": -0.1933152002121905, "2020": 1.1996006831518118, "2022": 0.008282823368646497, "2024": -0.20318235973618481 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.284770411144217, "Brier": 0.05978621304814381, "log_loss": 0.2020446774736456, "coverage50": 0.6234188034188033, "coverage70": 0.7791452991452991, "coverage90": 0.9482051282051283 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.15627990122535707, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.20318235973618481, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.67268239475946, "Brier": 0.11606822916720853, "log_loss": 0.37136532123613686, "coverage50": 0.6938519813519813, "coverage70": 0.8175893550893552, "coverage90": 0.975 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "candidate_reference": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.0, "cycles_improved": 0, "two_sided_p": 1.0, "interval95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference.", "holm_p": 1.0 }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": 0.0, "2018": 0.0, "2020": 0.0, "2022": 0.0, "2024": 0.0 }, "gate": { "enabled": false, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.0, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.0, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } }, "fixed25": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.241363247759979, "Brier": 0.06013845876465899, "log_loss": 0.20230851259008853, "coverage50": 0.608034188034188, "coverage70": 0.7847863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.1996870646095954, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.20319473243122613, 0.76900518868077 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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No causal inference." }, "cycle_gains": { "2016": -0.0036332901765181447, "2018": -0.20777428806258502, "2020": 1.284097507918962, "2022": 0.22414129129533933, "2024": -0.2983958979272212 }, "gate": { "enabled": true, "cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.241363247759979, "Brier": 0.06013845876465899, "log_loss": 0.20230851259008853, "coverage50": 0.608034188034188, "coverage70": 0.7847863247863248, "coverage90": 0.9558974358974359 }, "MAE_gain_pp": 0.19968706460959496, "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.2983958979272212, "competitive_baseline": { "MAE_pp": 3.986830893649907, "Brier": 0.12542030322120593, "log_loss": 0.3996707484880092, "coverage50": 0.6409673659673659, "coverage70": 0.7982711732711734, "coverage90": 0.9442307692307693 }, "competitive_candidate": { "MAE_pp": 3.6691874232683, "Brier": 0.11707929458607107, "log_loss": 0.3737090316604815, "coverage50": 0.6784673659673659, "coverage70": 0.8564782439782441, "coverage90": 0.9875 }, "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp." } } }, "experts_and_lean": { "test_races": 120, "test_cycles": [ 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 ], "nested": { "baseline": { "MAE_pp": 4.441050312369574, "Brier": 0.0665266118450972, "log_loss": 0.21922925902907098, "coverage50": 0.5541880341880342, "coverage70": 0.7862678062678062, "coverage90": 0.9461538461538461 }, "candidate": { "MAE_pp": 4.374664560565249, "Brier": 0.0635305066867429, "log_loss": 0.2075400222402129, "coverage50": 0.5615954415954416, "coverage70": 0.809059829059829, "coverage90": 0.9615384615384615 }, "inference": { "cycles": 5, "mean_gain_pp": 0.06638575180432538, "cycles_improved": 2, "two_sided_p": 0.75, "interval95": [ -0.10657657932447799, 0.2550563969726591 ], "assumptions": "Whole-election differences are independent and sign-symmetric under the null. 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"blend": 0.5, "MAE_pp": 4.797417372798516 } ] } } ], "production_changed": false, "enabled": false, "protected_outputs": [ { "file": "model/extensions/senate/active.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/extensions/senate/current_points.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/extensions/senate/analysis.json", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/forecast.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/projection_summary.json", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/house/forecast.csv", "unchanged": true }, { "file": "model/House Model.html", "unchanged": true } ], "limitations": [ "Final historical predictions are the user-authorized main benchmark and can use later information than the frozen polling cutoff. Only the archived-cutoff comparison reflects availability then.", "Wikipedia is a common secondary table source. Direct Cook and Sabato pages were inaccessible; source links, raw pages and revisions are preserved without claiming full primary-source verification.", "Archived tables may lag actual rating publications and omit safe states; missing ratings stay missing. Their cohort is held fixed in the final_on_cutoff_scope comparison.", "Raters use polling and overlapping fundamentals, so their three opinions are correlated and are not three independent new polls.", "Ordinal rating spacing is a modeling choice rather than literal margins/probabilities. The fitted effects use only earlier election outcomes.", "Five national test elections, model-development reuse and overlapping training history constrain statistical inference and any general claim of improvement." ] }