{
  "as_of": "2026-10-18",
  "goal_complete": false,
  "requirements": [
    {
      "requirement": "Individual-only dollar shares, exact race denominator and comparison against amounts",
      "status": "Partial; final financial coverage blocked",
      "evidence": [
        "individual_dollar_shares.csv",
        "individual_dollar_comparison_analysis.json",
        "individual_vs_total_receipts_analysis.json",
        "expanded_financial_fetch_status.json"
      ],
      "verified": "Exact shares for 28 current polled races/57 candidates; Montana includes three candidates; all 14 remaining identities/committees mapped. Paired 2018-to-2022 and expanded-2016 sensitivity completed.",
      "remaining": "Obtain pre-cutoff reports for the seven unpolled races and historical 2020/2024 expansion, then rerun financial and joint comparisons."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Basic candidate scandal searches, dated severity and predictive tests",
      "status": "Complete for the documented basic-review scope",
      "evidence": [
        "candidate_scandal_features.csv",
        "scandal_events.csv",
        "scandal_exclusions.csv",
        "scandal_comparison_analysis.json"
      ],
      "verified": "507 candidate-race instances with search/alias checks; 48 episodes, 43 exclusions. Seat-specific public-news windows, disputed/strict and exact-date sensitivities, five chronological test elections. Six current uncorroborated leads remain explicitly excluded, not findings."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Appointed versus elected once versus elected multiple times",
      "status": "Complete with documented source coverage",
      "evidence": [
        "candidate_career_features.csv",
        "career_comparison_analysis.json"
      ],
      "verified": "Three current appointees separated from Ricketts once-elected and multiple-election incumbents; 172 historical checks agree with prior records. Missing biographies remain unknown."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Prior public office, including open seats and challengers; compare suggested hierarchy",
      "status": "Complete with documented source coverage",
      "evidence": [
        "candidate_office_episodes.csv",
        "career_comparison_analysis.json"
      ],
      "verified": "Learned office categories, suggested hierarchy, open-seat-only and nonincumbent-only alternatives tested. 62 of 71 current candidates have matched biographies; no absence inferred for the rest."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Prior House/governor election performance relative to partisanship and national environment",
      "status": "Complete with documented map/result coverage",
      "evidence": [
        "prior_candidate_election_evidence.csv",
        "prior_election_comparisons.csv",
        "career_comparison_analysis.json"
      ],
      "verified": "200 candidate-evidence records, same-map House filters, prior-cycle signs/recency/caps, and nine current House comparisons. No new transfer effect passes incremental tests."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Smaller-state incumbency and congressional approval interactions",
      "status": "Complete",
      "evidence": [
        "incumbency_context_analysis.json",
        "state_population_vintages.csv",
        "congressional_approval_by_cycle.csv"
      ],
      "verified": "Prior-available Census and Gallup releases; five chronological test cycles, identical controls, Maine/West Virginia exclusion sensitivity."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Joint candidate-family comparisons and Senate-only integration",
      "status": "Available-data comparisons published; financial completion still pending",
      "evidence": [
        "scandal_comparison_analysis.json",
        "joint_finance_career_scandal_scores.csv",
        "publication.json",
        "Candidate Research.html"
      ],
      "verified": "No new feature family passes incremental checks; no added weights activated. Sources/downloads added to Senate page; forecast numbers and House files remain identical.",
      "remaining": "Repeat the financial joint tests when FEC reports become accessible."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Calculation, source/chronology and page verification",
      "status": "Pass for published available-data artifacts",
      "evidence": [
        "validation.json",
        "browser_validation.json",
        "notebook_validation.json"
      ],
      "verified": "27 calculation/source/chronology/preservation checks, 15 browser checks, four executed notebook code cells; screenshots visually inspected."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Single combined fundamentals index, with optional lean, generic ballot and individual fundraising",
      "status": "Complete on available data; full financial validation limited by original report gaps",
      "evidence": [
        "fundamentals_index_protocol.json",
        "fundamentals_index_analysis.json",
        "fundamentals_index_backtests.csv",
        "fundamentals_validation.json",
        "Fundamentals Research.html"
      ],
      "verified": "Earlier-election-only pure outcome index and nested poll blend; paired simple-fundamentals comparisons; whole-election inference; primary 130 races over five cycles. Fixed versus learned blends separately reported.",
      "remaining": "More complete historical financial reports are required for a stable full joint financial test; no new weight is activated."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Remove fundamentals factors and test smaller combinations",
      "status": "Complete for all available factor-family subsets",
      "evidence": [
        "fundamentals_ablation_protocol.json",
        "fundamentals_ablation_analysis.json",
        "fundamentals_ablation_predictions.csv",
        "fundamentals_ablation_validation.json"
      ],
      "verified": "32 core, 64 generic-ballot and 128 financial subsets on constant within-cohort membership; earlier-only selection compared with retrospective winners. Primary full fixed-blend score is best of all 32; no adopted weight.",
      "remaining": "Original financial source gaps still limit joint financial inference; this does not block the available-data removal comparison."
    },
    {
      "requirement": "Expert ratings from Cook, Sabato and Rothenberg/Inside Elections",
      "status": "Complete on authorized final Wikipedia tables, with separate archived-cutoff tests",
      "evidence": [
        "expert_ratings_sources.csv",
        "expert_ratings_test_protocol.json",
        "expert_ratings_analysis.json",
        "expert_ratings_validation.json",
        "Expert Ratings Research.html"
      ],
      "verified": "Final tables cover all 130 historical test races and 35 current races; archived cutoff tests cover 120, with matched timing comparison. Current IE agrees with the public primary export for all 35 races. Earlier-only coefficient and blend fitting; cutoff-valid learned index fails adoption gate.",
      "remaining": "No production weight enabled; these five-cycle development results do not establish a stable additional predictive effect at the model cutoff."
    }
  ],
  "blocking_condition": "FEC historical/current report access unavailable: API HTTP 429 with Retry-After, and direct public filing-archive probes returned HTTP 403.",
  "API_retry_not_before_utc": "2026-10-19T10:40:12.958345+00:00",
  "public_probe_manifest": "sources/senate_candidates/fec/public_probes/manifest.json",
  "recurrence_evidence": [
    "The original financial expansion saved the FEC 429 and required eight-hour wait.",
    "The subsequent progress-update turn reported the same FEC wait and preserved the source gaps.",
    "Goal continuation work honored the saved deadline; an independent public-archive fallback also returned 403."
  ],
  "resume_steps": [
    "After the server deadline, run fetch_senate_individual_shares.py; it prioritizes current gaps, 2020 and 2024 and honors any renewed Retry-After.",
    "Run test_senate_individual_dollars.py and compare_senate_individual_total_receipts.py.",
    "Rerun test_senate_scandal_features.py for the expanded joint financial cohort; review incremental gates before any activation.",
    "Republish candidate research and the Senate-only page; execute the notebook and page checks again."
  ],
  "forecast_numbers_changed": false,
  "House_changed": false,
  "status": "blocked: remaining financial coverage awaits FEC service access",
  "last_block_verified_utc": "2026-10-19T06:06:17+00:00"
}