{
  "as_of": "2026-10-19",
  "trend_gate": {
    "enabled": false,
    "cycles": [
      2010,
      2012,
      2014,
      2016,
      2018,
      2020,
      2022,
      2024
    ],
    "baseline": {
      "MAE_pp": 4.8976088773912725,
      "Brier": 0.0617853976390424,
      "log_loss": 0.20187990162223385,
      "coverage50": 0.5284368647124401,
      "coverage70": 0.7407769088683411,
      "coverage90": 0.907697963800905
    },
    "candidate": {
      "MAE_pp": 4.918236097809803,
      "Brier": 0.06207571140647592,
      "log_loss": 0.20265407712510786,
      "coverage50": 0.5097402835158589,
      "coverage70": 0.7359692165606488,
      "coverage90": 0.9125056561085972
    },
    "MAE_gain_pp": -0.020627220418530712,
    "worst_cycle_MAE_increase_pp": 0.10039704044656972,
    "competitive_baseline": {
      "MAE_pp": 4.653081417293523,
      "Brier": 0.1339854611161451,
      "log_loss": 0.420084923927147,
      "coverage50": 0.5482694388944389,
      "coverage70": 0.6775290681540682,
      "coverage90": 0.9152358058608059
    },
    "competitive_candidate": {
      "MAE_pp": 4.668424214555461,
      "Brier": 0.13459529363105005,
      "log_loss": 0.42170228771239193,
      "coverage50": 0.5274361055611055,
      "coverage70": 0.6775290681540682,
      "coverage90": 0.9152358058608059
    },
    "rule": "At least 3 prior tests; MAE gain >=0.05pp; Brier deterioration <=0.0005; competitive MAE deterioration <=0.10pp; worst-cycle deterioration <=0.75pp."
  },
  "calibration_policy": "parameter_scaled",
  "unpolled_seats": 7,
  "parameter_method": "Delete-one-election refits of common correction, PVI and fixed-strength fundamentals; uncertainty in model choice is not a full posterior.",
  "limitations": [
    "Historical publication dates remain approximated by fieldwork end plus one day.",
    "All tests are retrospective development checks; previously inspected cycles are not untouched validation.",
    "Unpolled structural baseline is fitted separately on all available ordinary D/R official slates, not only polled races."
  ]
}