{
  "model": {
    "training_cycles": [
      2016,
      2018,
      2020,
      2022,
      2024
    ],
    "cross_chamber_cycles": [
      2016,
      2018,
      2020,
      2022,
      2024
    ],
    "national_correlation": 0.4404987152235962,
    "regional_sd_pp": 1.2215847892016807,
    "state_sd_pp": 1.3107976149794227,
    "demographic_sd_pp": 0.0,
    "firm_sd_pp": 0.0,
    "limits": [
      "Only five overlapping national cycles; shared covariance remains an experimental sensitivity.",
      "State and region variances are noise-corrected and shrunk toward zero with five prior election units.",
      "Demographic features are not sufficiently harmonized and map-matched for a production error component.",
      "Exact respondent overlap cannot be recovered from public aggregate poll records."
    ]
  },
  "gate": {
    "results": [
      {
        "cycle": 2022,
        "groups": 8,
        "baseline_score": 15.733058376575055,
        "correlated_score": 15.222712389320007,
        "training_cycles": "2016;2018;2020"
      },
      {
        "cycle": 2024,
        "groups": 8,
        "baseline_score": 8.73984646411359,
        "correlated_score": 9.249302760276771,
        "training_cycles": "2016;2018;2020;2022"
      }
    ],
    "enabled": false,
    "reason": "Only 2 later-cycle joint-error tests; retained as a sensitivity, not an established improvement in chamber probabilities."
  }
}