{
  "date": "2026-10-20",
  "polling_cutoff": "2026-10-19",
  "horizon_days": 15,
  "statistical_additions": [],
  "provisional_addition": "June total receipts; capped at three margin points;22 of35 Senate races matched",
  "combined_cases": 100,
  "best_senate_combination": {
    "case": "depth__intercept",
    "chamber": "Senate",
    "cohort": "full",
    "test_cycles": [
      2016,
      2018,
      2020,
      2022,
      2024
    ],
    "baseline": {
      "MAE_pp": 4.604641201894618,
      "Brier": 0.05608328342699641,
      "log_loss": 0.18538997773984942,
      "WIS": 2.906001679377812
    },
    "candidate": {
      "MAE_pp": 4.23978786396308,
      "Brier": 0.055405248242740276,
      "log_loss": 0.17650553047626813,
      "WIS": 2.68273786391881
    },
    "inference": {
      "cycles": 5,
      "mean_gain_pp": 0.3648533379315377,
      "improved_cycles": 4,
      "two_sided_sign_flip_p": 0.25,
      "minimum_two_sided_p": 0.0625,
      "bootstrap95": [
        -0.04083581401281107,
        0.6970804530739325
      ],
      "limits": "Whole-election sign symmetry is an assumption; few elections and overlapping training limit inference. Bootstrap interval is descriptive, not independent confirmation."
    },
    "worst_cycle_deterioration_pp": 0.4309201227263584,
    "competitive_gain_pp": 0.3295815372537912,
    "retrospective_final_ratings": false,
    "holm_p": 1.0,
    "qualified": false
  },
  "house_incumbency": {
    "baseline_MAE_pp": 4.774052820168373,
    "scenario_MAE_pp": 4.673015347793227,
    "whole_election_p": 0.125,
    "cycle_gains_pp": [
      0.2773865372697415,
      0.06530587269328691,
      0.03356911407777652,
      0.02788836545978146
    ],
    "adopted": false
  },
  "candidate_pooled": {
    "case_id": 24,
    "quality": "rcv_final_pooled",
    "blend": "active",
    "period": "2016_to_2024",
    "inference": {
      "cycles": 5,
      "mean_gain_pp": -0.10012735874342198,
      "improved_cycles": 1,
      "two_sided_sign_flip_p": 0.3125,
      "minimum_two_sided_p": 0.0625,
      "bootstrap95": [
        -0.2266762427462174,
        0.03601019230666154
      ],
      "limits": "Whole-election sign symmetry is an assumption; few elections and overlapping training limit inference. Bootstrap interval is descriptive, not independent confirmation."
    },
    "MAE_pp": 4.704768560638041,
    "Brier": 0.05679553319483788,
    "log_loss": 0.18681962709397731,
    "WIS": 2.9733352832646283,
    "baseline_MAE_pp": 4.604641201894618,
    "baseline_Brier": 0.05608328342699641,
    "holm_p": 1.0
  },
  "finance_total": {
    "path": "residual",
    "money": "total",
    "case": "residual_total",
    "cycles": [
      2014,
      2016,
      2018,
      2020,
      2022,
      2024
    ],
    "matched": {
      "races": 143,
      "baseline": {
        "MAE_pp": 4.871364987232714,
        "Brier": 0.05946278972351665,
        "log_loss": 0.194924231481006,
        "WIS": 3.0951172761642933
      },
      "scenario": {
        "MAE_pp": 4.841583843734971,
        "Brier": 0.05860394923482256,
        "log_loss": 0.19299714606718874,
        "WIS": 3.067033662699337
      },
      "inference": {
        "cycles": 6,
        "mean_gain_pp": 0.02978114349774419,
        "improved_cycles": 4,
        "two_sided_sign_flip_p": 0.46875,
        "minimum_two_sided_p": 0.03125,
        "bootstrap95": [
          -0.04386332984239827,
          0.09234168910086742
        ],
        "limits": "Whole-election sign symmetry is an assumption; few elections and overlapping training limit inference. Bootstrap interval is descriptive, not independent confirmation."
      },
      "worst_cycle_deterioration_pp": 0.12431842238075319
    },
    "full": {
      "races": 149,
      "baseline": {
        "MAE_pp": 4.94213999438024,
        "Brier": 0.05693951506487772,
        "log_loss": 0.18813849729204668,
        "WIS": 3.1422614619484937
      },
      "scenario": {
        "MAE_pp": 4.9110896439904215,
        "Brier": 0.05605793479461891,
        "log_loss": 0.18616156773831224,
        "WIS": 3.1141363539294975
      },
      "inference": {
        "cycles": 6,
        "mean_gain_pp": 0.031050350389817627,
        "improved_cycles": 4,
        "two_sided_sign_flip_p": 0.375,
        "minimum_two_sided_p": 0.03125,
        "bootstrap95": [
          -0.038118271125878955,
          0.08976528916380921
        ],
        "limits": "Whole-election sign symmetry is an assumption; few elections and overlapping training limit inference. Bootstrap interval is descriptive, not independent confirmation."
      },
      "worst_cycle_deterioration_pp": 0.11475546681300308
    },
    "competitive": {
      "races": 68,
      "baseline": {
        "MAE_pp": 4.405013441548772,
        "Brier": 0.12849219555765862,
        "log_loss": 0.4036132698496255,
        "WIS": 2.8421552388924307
      },
      "scenario": {
        "MAE_pp": 4.409646587963029,
        "Brier": 0.12615820296150138,
        "log_loss": 0.39896454336732257,
        "WIS": 2.8499763415343202
      },
      "inference": {
        "cycles": 6,
        "mean_gain_pp": -0.00463314641425668,
        "improved_cycles": 3,
        "two_sided_sign_flip_p": 0.90625,
        "minimum_two_sided_p": 0.03125,
        "bootstrap95": [
          -0.08847925721342209,
          0.06231850152703947
        ],
        "limits": "Whole-election sign symmetry is an assumption; few elections and overlapping training limit inference. Bootstrap interval is descriptive, not independent confirmation."
      },
      "worst_cycle_deterioration_pp": 0.19147407449117626
    },
    "conditional_vs_controls": {
      "cycles": 6,
      "mean_gain_pp": 0.03177042717620752,
      "improved_cycles": 5,
      "two_sided_sign_flip_p": 0.25,
      "minimum_two_sided_p": 0.03125,
      "bootstrap95": [
        -0.009845363982112406,
        0.07385672039384139
      ],
      "limits": "Whole-election sign symmetry is an assumption; few elections and overlapping training limit inference. Bootstrap interval is descriptive, not independent confirmation."
    },
    "secondary_holm_p": 1.0
  },
  "independent_checks": {
    "status": "PASS",
    "historical_prediction_rows": 34577,
    "current_scenario_rows": 17308,
    "cases": 100,
    "max_baseline_difference_pp": 0,
    "max_score_difference": 7.066014440226809e-13,
    "max_inference_difference": 5.329070518200751e-15,
    "max_current_baseline_difference_pp": 0,
    "strict_fit_chronology": true,
    "independent_method": "Separate JavaScript CSV joins, Gaussian/t5 numerical integration, interval-score arithmetic and exhaustive election sign flips; all 100 saved cases. Coefficients separately audited in representative candidate and financial folds."
  },
  "variable_families": [
    {
      "family": "Polling-firm and sponsor weights",
      "test": "Partisan 0.5; grade bonus 1.25; combined; grades available at the time versus later hindsight grades. Generic-ballot weighting tested separately.",
      "decision": "Small Senate gains; House results mixed. Keep as comparisons.",
      "evidence": "pollster_weighting/summary.csv"
    },
    {
      "family": "Fundamentals versus polls",
      "test": "Six strengths from zero to 1.25 times the existing contribution, plus choices based only on earlier elections.",
      "decision": "Removing Senate fundamentals worsened margin and probability scores. No new weight selected.",
      "evidence": "input_sensitivities/fundamentals_summary.csv"
    },
    {
      "family": "2020 influence",
      "test": "Full, half and quarter fitting weights; all elections still scored equally.",
      "decision": "Lower 2020 weights worsened average margin error in both chambers.",
      "evidence": "input_sensitivities/fitting_summary.csv"
    },
    {
      "family": "Bias-only alternatives",
      "test": "Common or firm bias correction, with partisan weights 0.5, 0.75 and 1.",
      "decision": "Worse than the current model on the same historical races.",
      "evidence": "input_sensitivities/bias_only_summary.csv"
    },
    {
      "family": "Presidential approval and midterms",
      "test": "Gallup level/net approval, dated-reading sensitivities, generic-ballot controls and fixed/learned opposition-party effects.",
      "decision": "No reliable additional improvement. A valid current approval reading is not available in the saved series; no value is invented.",
      "evidence": "midterm/summary.csv"
    },
    {
      "family": "Candidate record and experience",
      "test": "32 structural comparisons of prior House, Senate and governor results; latest/pooled ranked-choice results; revised polling blends.",
      "decision": "Identity matches repaired. No additional candidate formula qualified.",
      "evidence": "candidates/paired_candidate_metrics.csv"
    },
    {
      "family": "Incumbent prior-election context",
      "test": "Eight House definitions: national environment, prior-map lean, previous challenger/open-seat/incumbent role and uncontested-vote assumptions.",
      "decision": "Context adjustment modestly improved margins; insufficient election-level confirmation.",
      "evidence": "incumbency/house_summary.csv"
    },
    {
      "family": "Fundraising",
      "test": "29 Q3 receipt/donor/cash/spending comparisons; 8 expanded June-series comparisons, plus candidate/national combinations.",
      "decision": "June total receipts included provisionally by choice. Other money measures remain research.",
      "evidence": "financial_analysis.json"
    },
    {
      "family": "Lean, candidate factors and national conditions together",
      "test": "100 fixed combinations, including small-state incumbency, congressional approval interactions, poll depth/age and nonlinear lean.",
      "decision": "No combination met all evidence and forecast safeguards.",
      "evidence": "combination_analysis.json"
    },
    {
      "family": "Expert ratings",
      "test": "Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections and consensus, with historical final ratings.",
      "decision": "Retrospective benchmarks may contain information published after the forecast cutoff; not sufficient for deployment.",
      "evidence": "combination_protocol.json"
    },
    {
      "family": "Geography and demographics",
      "test": "Map-matched education and urbanicity profiles; eight shared-error structures, two simulation seeds and 100,000 draws per case/election.",
      "decision": "Refreshed on the corrected baseline. No reliable improvement; regional default retained as an explicit scenario choice.",
      "evidence": "demographics/analysis.json"
    },
    {
      "family": "Additional state urbanization",
      "test": "Dated Census 2010 metro share and urban share, separately and together, after lean/incumbency controls.",
      "decision": "Senate margin accuracy worsened; no addition.",
      "evidence": "urbanization/analysis.json"
    }
  ]
}