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      ],
      "national": "none",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "finance"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "case": "candidate_cash_on_hand__generic_approval",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "house",
        "governor",
        "senate",
        "quality_missing",
        "experience",
        "scandal",
        "cash_on_hand"
      ],
      "national": "generic_approval",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "finance"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "case": "candidate_individual_amount_10m__none",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "house",
        "governor",
        "senate",
        "quality_missing",
        "experience",
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        "individual_amount_10m"
      ],
      "national": "none",
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      "cohort": "finance"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "case": "candidate_individual_amount_10m__generic_approval",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
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      ],
      "national": "generic_approval",
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    },
    {
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "case": "cook_final_benchmark",
      "columns": [
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        "cook_missing"
      ],
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      "retrospective_final_ratings": true
    },
    {
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "case": "sabato_final_benchmark",
      "columns": [
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        "inc",
        "sabato_expert",
        "sabato_missing"
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      "national": "none",
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    },
    {
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "case": "inside_elections_final_benchmark",
      "columns": [
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        "inc",
        "inside_elections_expert",
        "inside_elections_missing"
      ],
      "national": "none",
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    },
    {
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "case": "consensus_final_benchmark",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "consensus_expert",
        "consensus_missing"
      ],
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      "cohort": "full",
      "retrospective_final_ratings": true
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "none__none",
      "columns": [],
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "none__intercept",
      "columns": [],
      "national": "intercept",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "none__generic",
      "columns": [],
      "national": "generic",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "none__approval_level",
      "columns": [],
      "national": "approval_level",
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      "loss": "quadratic",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "none__approval_net",
      "columns": [],
      "national": "approval_net",
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      "loss": "quadratic",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "none__midterm",
      "columns": [],
      "national": "midterm",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "none__generic_approval",
      "columns": [],
      "national": "generic_approval",
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      "loss": "quadratic",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "lean__none",
      "columns": [
        "lean"
      ],
      "national": "none",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "lean__intercept",
      "columns": [
        "lean"
      ],
      "national": "intercept",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "lean__generic",
      "columns": [
        "lean"
      ],
      "national": "generic",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "lean__approval_level",
      "columns": [
        "lean"
      ],
      "national": "approval_level",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "lean__approval_net",
      "columns": [
        "lean"
      ],
      "national": "approval_net",
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "lean__midterm",
      "columns": [
        "lean"
      ],
      "national": "midterm",
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "lean__generic_approval",
      "columns": [
        "lean"
      ],
      "national": "generic_approval",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "incumbency_context__none",
      "columns": [
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "small_inc",
        "approval_inc"
      ],
      "national": "none",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "incumbency_context__intercept",
      "columns": [
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "small_inc",
        "approval_inc"
      ],
      "national": "intercept",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "incumbency_context__generic",
      "columns": [
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "small_inc",
        "approval_inc"
      ],
      "national": "generic",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "incumbency_context__approval_level",
      "columns": [
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "small_inc",
        "approval_inc"
      ],
      "national": "approval_level",
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "incumbency_context__approval_net",
      "columns": [
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        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "small_inc",
        "approval_inc"
      ],
      "national": "approval_net",
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      "loss": "quadratic",
      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "incumbency_context__midterm",
      "columns": [
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "small_inc",
        "approval_inc"
      ],
      "national": "midterm",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "incumbency_context__generic_approval",
      "columns": [
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        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "small_inc",
        "approval_inc"
      ],
      "national": "generic_approval",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "nonlinear__none",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "lean_inc",
        "lean_abs",
        "poll_lean_gap"
      ],
      "national": "none",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "nonlinear__intercept",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "lean_inc",
        "lean_abs",
        "poll_lean_gap"
      ],
      "national": "intercept",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "nonlinear__generic",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "lean_inc",
        "lean_abs",
        "poll_lean_gap"
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    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "nonlinear__approval_level",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "lean_inc",
        "lean_abs",
        "poll_lean_gap"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "nonlinear__approval_net",
      "columns": [
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        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "lean_inc",
        "lean_abs",
        "poll_lean_gap"
      ],
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "nonlinear__midterm",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "lean_inc",
        "lean_abs",
        "poll_lean_gap"
      ],
      "national": "midterm",
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    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "nonlinear__generic_approval",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "inc",
        "prior",
        "prior_missing",
        "lean_inc",
        "lean_abs",
        "poll_lean_gap"
      ],
      "national": "generic_approval",
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "depth__none",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "fundamental_delta",
        "sparse_gap",
        "age_gap"
      ],
      "national": "none",
      "ridge": 1.0,
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      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "depth__intercept",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "fundamental_delta",
        "sparse_gap",
        "age_gap"
      ],
      "national": "intercept",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "depth__generic",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "fundamental_delta",
        "sparse_gap",
        "age_gap"
      ],
      "national": "generic",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "depth__approval_level",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "fundamental_delta",
        "sparse_gap",
        "age_gap"
      ],
      "national": "approval_level",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "depth__approval_net",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "fundamental_delta",
        "sparse_gap",
        "age_gap"
      ],
      "national": "approval_net",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "depth__midterm",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "fundamental_delta",
        "sparse_gap",
        "age_gap"
      ],
      "national": "midterm",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    },
    {
      "chamber": "House",
      "case": "depth__generic_approval",
      "columns": [
        "lean",
        "fundamental_delta",
        "sparse_gap",
        "age_gap"
      ],
      "national": "generic_approval",
      "ridge": 1.0,
      "loss": "quadratic",
      "fitting_2020_multiplier": 1.0,
      "cohort": "full"
    }
  ],
  "horizon": 15,
  "minimum_training_elections": 3,
  "source": "Actual current historical forecasts; corrected and independently checked candidate quality; cutoff finance; generic recomputed at current horizon",
  "method": "Within-election residual ridge; earlier elections only; historical forecast uncertainty retained; national regression at election level",
  "significance": "Exact whole-election sign flips, Holm family adjustment; already inspected development elections; no untouched validation set",
  "limits": [
    "Final expert ratings are authorized retrospective benchmarks and may postdate15day cutoff; never deploy from this benchmark alone.",
    "Current national approval remains missing where no valid reading exists; no extrapolated national term is applied.",
    "House financial/candidate transfer is not borrowed from Senate.",
    "Financial cohort is separate and paired; no comparison of its MAE level to full-cohort MAE."
  ]
}