{
  "status": "Verified official precinct-to-precinct join",
  "source": "https://www.pottcounty-ia.gov/files/election_results/2024_general_election_2024_11_05_74435.pdf",
  "source_sha256": "2b2eda5fc9d1835ad12d546e4558a5b93bcfe49029caaa61dbf3b172a6783711",
  "source_pages_pdf_indices": [
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  ],
  "candidate": "Josh Turek",
  "party_at_source_election": "D",
  "office": "Iowa State House",
  "district": "20",
  "cycle": 2024,
  "target_cycle": 2026,
  "precincts": [
    {
      "precinct": "CB 01",
      "pres_R": 462,
      "pres_D": 369,
      "house_R": 407,
      "house_D": 401,
      "ballots": 857
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 02",
      "pres_R": 630,
      "pres_D": 513,
      "house_R": 557,
      "house_D": 557,
      "ballots": 1168
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 03",
      "pres_R": 499,
      "pres_D": 423,
      "house_R": 410,
      "house_D": 493,
      "ballots": 943
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 04",
      "pres_R": 529,
      "pres_D": 381,
      "house_R": 443,
      "house_D": 422,
      "ballots": 926
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 05",
      "pres_R": 540,
      "pres_D": 406,
      "house_R": 464,
      "house_D": 452,
      "ballots": 970
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 06",
      "pres_R": 747,
      "pres_D": 715,
      "house_R": 635,
      "house_D": 786,
      "ballots": 1496
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 07",
      "pres_R": 721,
      "pres_D": 668,
      "house_R": 621,
      "house_D": 757,
      "ballots": 1427
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 13",
      "pres_R": 331,
      "pres_D": 395,
      "house_R": 287,
      "house_D": 417,
      "ballots": 730
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 14",
      "pres_R": 450,
      "pres_D": 362,
      "house_R": 376,
      "house_D": 421,
      "ballots": 827
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CB 15",
      "pres_R": 421,
      "pres_D": 418,
      "house_R": 361,
      "house_D": 444,
      "ballots": 852
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CARTER LAKE 1",
      "pres_R": 435,
      "pres_D": 345,
      "house_R": 380,
      "house_D": 391,
      "ballots": 805
    },
    {
      "precinct": "CARTER LAKE 2",
      "pres_R": 461,
      "pres_D": 275,
      "house_R": 379,
      "house_D": 340,
      "ballots": 755
    }
  ],
  "totals": {
    "pres_R": 6226,
    "pres_D": 5270,
    "house_R": 5320,
    "house_D": 5881,
    "ballots": 11756
  },
  "presidential_two_party_margin_pp": -8.315935977731385,
  "state_house_two_party_margin_pp": 5.0084813855905725,
  "same_ballot_overperformance_pp": 13.324417363321958,
  "in_forecast": false,
  "limits": [
    "Measures same-ballot district-level performance, not a statewide margin bonus.",
    "Requires comparable earlier candidates and a learned transfer effect before deployment.",
    "One candidate district supplies no population-level transfer coefficient.",
    "Two-party denominators differ because of other candidates and undervotes. All-ballot totals reconcile for each precinct."
  ]
}