2026 ELECTION FORECASTLoading forecast...

2026 House forecast

House Control

Chance of control

DEMOCRATS—

Projected seats—

REPUBLICANS—

Projected seats—

Range of Outcomes

100,000 simulations

Election map

Safe >95% · Likely 85–95% · Lean 75–85% · Tilt 65–75% · Tossup: no candidate above 65%. Ratings describe win chances, not vote share.

Race ratings Safe seats omitted

	Democrat / independent	Republican			90% range		Polls

Joint House and Senate outcomes

Senate control assumes all elected independents caucus with Democrats.

Scenarios

Polling errors & candidate adjustments

Polling error scenario

Candidate adjustments Manual Senate penaltiesOn

These penalties are subjective electoral assumptions, not findings of wrongdoing or a statistically established formula. Changes apply to this page; reloading restores the published defaults.

Include Senate scandal adjustments